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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

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Profile Kevonni
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Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 12,101,014
RAC: 16
321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (96,519)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (187,140)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,478)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (82,254)PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (11,294)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (433,485)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,063,130)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (21,972)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (52,850)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (229,059)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,562)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (920,283)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (313,565)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (185,978)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,195,791)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (201,213)
Message 119084 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 8:49:28 UTC

Let's start guessing what the next prime will be like with the Fermat prime pool.

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Credit: 47,054,766
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Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (593,283)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (174,818)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,799)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (17,787,822)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,457)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (466,812)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (210,142)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,277)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (476,246)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (281,400)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,231,842)WW Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,756,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119089 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:16:03 UTC - in response to Message 119084.

In the Fermat prime pool, people express their bids as b values (the b in b^(2^n)+1).

Here we want to guess for the next prime that eliminates any of the five remaining multipliers in the Sierpiński problem, I presume.

Should we state our guess as the value of the exponent n in the expression

k·2^n + 1,

or should we give the number of decimal digits?

/JeppeSN

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 2 mega primesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2022 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2022 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2022 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,638,389)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,513,946)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,150,009)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,094,541)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,847,031)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,956,186)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (36,067,618)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,659,368)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,037,630)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,308,522)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,390,624)321 Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,902,645)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (94,267,591)WW Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (88,448,000)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 119090 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:35:09 UTC

Date is another possibility, e.g., "We'll find the next prime in 2023."

Also, bear in mind that we're currently in the middle of a long double check of prior work, with much lower chances of finding a prime. While the numbers themselves are smaller (which increases chances), since the numbers have already been checked once, our chance of finding a prime is approximately 30 times lower than it normally would be.

Even without the double check, there were nine years between the discoveries of the last 2 primes. The gap between the 2 largest primes is pretty large: n=13M and n=31M.


____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

MonkeydeeProject donor
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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2022 Tour de Primes321 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,340,621)Cullen LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,130,011)ESP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,724,918)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,022,217)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (35,283,765)PSP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,092,383)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,008,825)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,007,778)SGS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,001,242)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,005,659)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,486,569)321 Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,120,432)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,004,494)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (200,105,931)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,002,980)TRP Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,010,755)AP 26/27 Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (200,896,670)GFN Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (217,022,063)WW Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (500,000,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,033,845)
Message 119092 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:54:11 UTC

The next K to be eliminated could be another possibility, or the date AND the next K.
____________
My Primes
Badge Score: 4*2 + 6*2 + 7*5 + 8*7 + 11*3 + 12*1 = 156

Chara34122
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Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 95
ID: 490242
Credit: 18,833,291
RAC: 12,817
321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (322,129)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (233,672)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (602,515)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,854,440)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (192,051)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (391,392)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (508,064)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (279,919)321 Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (168,405)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (230,451)GFN Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (548,850)WW Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (508,000)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 119093 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:05:59 UTC
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:08 UTC

I thought about it while I was participating in original SoB and my opinion was:
1. Next k would be 24737 or 55459 (but not 10223 because I did not know that it was PrimeGrid's part of search)
2. I expected it in the short period of time (n<2^25)

Now my expectation is:
1. One of these 2 k's also
2. n<2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1759
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Credit: 47,054,766
RAC: 13,583
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (593,283)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (174,818)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,799)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (17,787,822)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,457)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (466,812)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (210,142)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,277)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (476,246)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (281,400)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,231,842)WW Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,756,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119095 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:17:49 UTC

It may be a matter of taste, but I find it uninteresting to bet on which k will be eliminated next (I was about to write "that is pure lottery", but gambling on the size of the next SoB prime is a lottery as well, I guess).

My guess for the exponent (of 2) of the next SoB prime shall be:

n = 17.8 M

that is k · 2^{17,800,000} + 1 for some k in { 21181; 22699; 24737; 55459; 67607 }.

I know I will win, and then Michael Goetz can predict when the leading edge will be near n = 17.8 M.

/JeppeSN

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1759
ID: 306875
Credit: 47,054,766
RAC: 13,583
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (593,283)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (174,818)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,799)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (17,787,822)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,457)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (466,812)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (210,142)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,277)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (476,246)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (281,400)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,231,842)WW Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,756,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119097 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:21:54 UTC - in response to Message 119093.


2. n<2^2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)


You mean the prime will be (just) below 2^(2^26), then what we usually call n (the n in k·2^n + 1) will be close to 2^26 = 67 million?

/JeppeSN

Chara34122
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Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 95
ID: 490242
Credit: 18,833,291
RAC: 12,817
321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (322,129)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (233,672)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (602,515)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,854,440)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (192,051)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (391,392)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (508,064)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (279,919)321 Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (168,405)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (230,451)GFN Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (548,850)WW Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (508,000)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 119098 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:29:20 UTC - in response to Message 119097.
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:48 UTC

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?

I've corrected it.

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Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (593,283)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (174,818)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,799)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (17,787,822)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,457)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (466,812)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (210,142)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,277)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (476,246)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (281,400)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,231,842)WW Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,756,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119101 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 14:39:59 UTC - in response to Message 119098.

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?


You are right! My guess was meaningless :-(

The double-check is currently near n = 25 M according to stats_sob_llr, and the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.

I will come up with a meaningful guess at another time (I guess I committed hubris with the style in my post where I made the silly guess).

/JeppeSN

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 2 mega primesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2022 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2022 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2022 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,638,389)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,513,946)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,150,009)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,094,541)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,847,031)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,956,186)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (36,067,618)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,659,368)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,037,630)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,308,522)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,390,624)321 Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,902,645)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (94,267,591)WW Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (88,448,000)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 119102 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 15:09:20 UTC - in response to Message 119101.

...the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.


Nothing above 31M needs to be double checked. The 31M range was always PrimeGrid's, so the part that's done is fully double checked already.

The double check ends at n=30,999,908.
____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Profile Kevonni
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Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 12,101,014
RAC: 16
321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (96,519)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (187,140)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,478)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (82,254)PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (11,294)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (433,485)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,063,130)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (21,972)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (52,850)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (229,059)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,562)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (920,283)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (313,565)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (185,978)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,195,791)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (201,213)
Message 119110 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 1:23:21 UTC - in response to Message 119089.

The guess should be stated as the exponent that will eliminate the next k. I am personally betting on the range from 3700097 to 37911100.

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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1759
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Credit: 47,054,766
RAC: 13,583
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (593,283)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (174,818)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,799)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (17,787,822)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,457)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (466,812)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (210,142)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,277)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (476,246)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (281,400)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,231,842)WW Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,756,000)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119114 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 6:47:53 UTC

OK, I will bring a valid bid, then: n = 48,400,000.

/JeppeSN

Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

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