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It's been awhile since this project has produced any new primes.
Does anybody have some probability charts to analyze?
When will the next prime number be discovered?
When this project first got going on PrimeGrid, prime numbers were being discovered left and right... 


Michael GoetzVolunteer moderator Project administrator
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Joined: 21 Jan 10 Posts: 13650 ID: 53948 Credit: 285,549,128 RAC: 40,408

When we first started, the project was brand new on BOINC, there was a challenge, and everyone was rushing to get whatever badge level they wanted. In short, we found a ton of primes because we did a ton of crunching.
The primes do get harder to find as the numbers get larger, but mostly it's because the amount of SR5 crunching we're doing right now is much less than what we did during that initial surge.
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My lucky number is 75898^{524288}+1 



The amount of power currently on SR5 is a lot lower than it was at the start. I think that also has a significant impact.
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PrimeGrid Challenge Overall standings  Last update: From Pi to Paddy (2016)



Michael GoetzVolunteer moderator Project administrator
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Joined: 21 Jan 10 Posts: 13650 ID: 53948 Credit: 285,549,128 RAC: 40,408

And to put some numbers to that, we're currently doing about 2,000 SR5 tasks per day.
During the challenge, we averaged well over 70,000 tasks per day.
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My lucky number is 75898^{524288}+1 



It all makes sense now.
In fact, it adds up. 



Indeed, this is a prime example it's basically a numbers game!
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PrimeGrid Challenge Overall standings  Last update: From Pi to Paddy (2016)



RogerVolunteer developer Volunteer tester
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Joined: 27 Nov 11 Posts: 1138 ID: 120786 Credit: 268,621,444 RAC: 0

When will the next prime number be discovered?
Yves Gallot did a paper on how to calculate the odds:
http://yves.gallot.pagespersoorange.fr/papers/weight.pdf
I still haven't read it yet.
What I have figured out is that my initial workings were too pessimistic:
http://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=5093
Trouble was I assumed base 2 has the same density of primes as a randomly chosen set of odd numbers of the same magnitude.
I'll update my post soon. Probabilities should be about 60% greater than what I first forecast. 


Scott BrownVolunteer moderator Project administrator Volunteer tester Project scientist
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Joined: 17 Oct 05 Posts: 2270 ID: 1178 Credit: 11,773,875,570 RAC: 13,177,555

And there's your proof that you can always count on Mike for incalculable assistance! :)



Michael GoetzVolunteer moderator Project administrator
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Joined: 21 Jan 10 Posts: 13650 ID: 53948 Credit: 285,549,128 RAC: 40,408

It's been awhile since this project has produced any new primes.
Does anybody have some probability charts to analyze?
When will the next prime number be discovered?
When this project first got going on PrimeGrid, prime numbers were being discovered left and right...
Funny you should mention this...
(more coming soon)
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My lucky number is 75898^{524288}+1 


serge Send message
Joined: 21 Jun 12 Posts: 112 ID: 144858 Credit: 264,629,844 RAC: 98,264

Funny you should mention this...
(more coming soon)
Just short of a megadigit:
http://primes.utm.edu/primes/page.php?id=116163
Congrats to Yost!
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My lucky number is Phi(4, 2^23960291)/2.




So close! 



Good deal.
At least now I feel like it was worth it to get my pink SR5 badge. I like knowing that I contributed to a project that's making progress. 


Michael GoetzVolunteer moderator Project administrator
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Joined: 21 Jan 10 Posts: 13650 ID: 53948 Credit: 285,549,128 RAC: 40,408

Good deal.
At least now I feel like it was worth it to get my pink SR5 badge. I like knowing that I contributed to a project that's making progress.
Indeed. In truth, everyone who crunches, whether it's sieving or checking for primality, is contributing to finding every prime.
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My lucky number is 75898^{524288}+1 


KEPSend message
Joined: 10 Aug 05 Posts: 293 ID: 110 Credit: 9,443,250 RAC: 1,596

Funny you should mention this...
(more coming soon)
Just short of a megadigit:
http://primes.utm.edu/primes/page.php?id=116163
Congrats to Yost!
Did you know that when n=>1,430,677 then all primes found beyond that n will be megaprimes. If anyone is up for being the first to find a base 5 megaprime, they better join the effort and crunch untill the next prime is found, since it propably will be the first base 5 mega prime find. So who is gonna get the megaprime? 

