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Message boards : Sophie Germain Prime Search : Average workunits per prime

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Omega

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Message 153201 - Posted: 11 Jan 2022 | 14:38:25 UTC

I was curious how many SGS tasks it takes to find a prime.
Since the numbers tested in SGS are virtually of the same size, dividing the number of tasks done by the number of primes found (in the current range, n=1290000) should be an approximation of the average number of tasks per prime found:
14362 tasks/prime

I haven't found a prime in the current range. So I asked myself is me not having found a prime expected (i.e. have I done fewer tasks than the 14362 needed on average) or am I overdue?

I have computed 25355 SGS tasks with a credit of 746124.09.
But since I have both crunched in the old range (n=666666) and the current (n=1290000), I first had to figure out how much of this work was done in the current range:
The old range gave 13.91 credit/WU and the current 39.91.
So it follows:
[tasks old range]*13.91 + [tasks current range]*39.91 = 746124.09
[tasks old range] + [tasks current range] = 25355
-> [tasks current range] ~ 15132

In conclusion, with approximately 15132 workunits done in the current range and an expected value of 14362, it is fair to say that I am slightely overdue for a prime or have I made a mistake somewhere?

Yves Gallot
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Project scientist

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Message 153213 - Posted: 11 Jan 2022 | 19:18:30 UTC - in response to Message 153201.
Last modified: 11 Jan 2022 | 19:43:53 UTC

The Poisson distribution is an appropriate model for the SGS search: prime numbers are rare events.
In your case, the model is a Poisson process with the parameter Λ = 15132/14362 = 1.0536.
0 prime: 34.9%
1 prime: 36.7%
2 primes: 19.4%
3 primes or more: 9%

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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Message 153227 - Posted: 12 Jan 2022 | 19:19:42 UTC - in response to Message 153213.

Thanks Yves!

I played around with the Poisson distribution a little and assuming that average number of tasks/prime is 14362 and with Λ = tasks/14362 we get:

+-------+---------+---------+---------+-------------------------------------+ | Tasks | PD(0,Λ) | PD(1,Λ) | PD(>1,Λ)| | +-------+---------+---------+---------+-------------------------------------+ | 14362 | 36.7879 | 36.7879 | 26.4241 | PD(0,Λ)=PD(1,Λ) ; max. value PD(1,Λ)| | 14363 | 36.7854 | 36.7879 | 26.4267 | [tasks]≥14363: PD(1,Λ)>PD(0,Λ) | | 16462 | 31.7836 | 36.4310 | 31.7854 | [tasks]≥16462: PD(>1,Λ)>PD(0,Λ) | | 18045 | 28.4665 | 35.7665 | 35.7669 | [tasks]≥18045: PD(>1,Λ)>PD(1,Λ) | +-------+---------+---------+---------+-------------------------------------+

Omega

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Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 154253 - Posted: 16 Feb 2022 | 14:10:54 UTC

Unluckiest SGS crunchers:

Most tasks in the current range (n=1290000) with no primes (including DC) found:

+----+-----------------------+--------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks*| +----+-----------------------+--------+ | 1 | wafflingdwarf | 53,057 | | 2 | Jonathan Connaughty | 51,045 | | 3 | vko | 51,017 | | 4 | Russ | 46,032 | | 5 | Seth Johnson | 45,417 | | 6 | Henri Five | 41,505 | | 7 | SAHJ@H | 40,030 | | 8 | Shadowlurker | 39,495 | | 9 | mikachu | 34,483 | | 10 | Jeff Patrignani | 32,781 | | 11 | ManuelJC | 31,478 | | 12 | srowen | 26,659 | | 13 | Bazina hkfree | 26,601 | | 14 | otto_com | 26,489 | | 15 | Fabio MOREIRA | 26,412 | | 16 | Incqption | 26,173 | | 17 | SkyFall | 25,627 | | 18 | greyverse | 25,553 | | 19 | Omega | 25,456 | | 20 | Jason Jung | 25,231 | | 21 | fnord | 25,222 | | 22 | Tomasz Kaczmarek | 25,167 | | 23 | Dan and Marie Andrews | 25,110 | | 24 | Philip Muskovac | 24,993 | | 25 | Nebuchadnezzar | 24,925 | | 26 | KPX | 24,611 | | 27 | geeknik | 24,305 | | 28 | motqalden | 24,036 | | 29 | Richard Haselgrove | 23,924 | | 30 | Peciak | 23,872 | | 31 | Atis Kozulis | 22,614 | | 32 | Steve | 22,346 | | 33 | Terminator | 22,302 | | 34 | kretze | 22,022 | | 35 | Daniel Peterson | 21,960 | | 36 | Conor | 21,813 | | 37 | woaiwinnie2 | 21,013 | | 38 | vmv | 20,604 | | 39 | Hijikata | 20,374 | +----+-----------------------+--------+

(*)I used the following formula to approximate tasks done in the current range:
[SGS_tasks_current] ~ ( [SGS_credit] - 13.91 * [SGS_tasks_total] ) /26

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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Message 154254 - Posted: 16 Feb 2022 | 15:15:56 UTC

Unluckiest SGS crunchers (part 2):

Second table includes those who've found primes but have more tasks (in the current range) than expected (based on number of primes [incl. DC] found):

+----+-----------------------+-----------+------+-----------+--------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks* |Primes| T. exp.** | Surplus| +----+-----------------------+-----------+------+-----------+--------+ | 1 | usverg | 612,680 | 36 | 517,320 | 95,360 | | 2 | yves | 655,463 | 39 | 560,430 | 95,033 | | 3 | Andy | 669,335 | 40 | 574,800 | 94,535 | | 4 | Shayol Ghul | 374,526 | 20 | 287,400 | 87,126 | | 5 | Johny | 268,169 | 13 | 186,810 | 81,359 | | 6 | stream | 250,562 | 12 | 172,440 | 78,122 | | 7 | Jaska* | 163,450 | 6 | 86,220 | 77,230 | | 8 | jhwells | 1,871,654 | 125 | 1,796,250 | 75,404 | | 9 | David Steel | 117,474 | 3 | 43,110 | 74,364 | | 10 | corris | 332,617 | 18 | 258,660 | 73,957 | | 11 | DaveSun | 188,290 | 8 | 114,960 | 73,330 | | 12 | robish | 141,772 | 5 | 71,850 | 69,922 | | 13 | Damian | 125,899 | 4 | 57,480 | 68,419 | | 14 | [SG]KidDoesCrunch | 125,859 | 4 | 57,480 | 68,379 | | 15 | Brucifer | 136,616 | 5 | 71,850 | 64,766 | | 16 | No_Name | 509,317 | 31 | 445,470 | 63,847 | | 17 | Jozef J | 92,502 | 2 | 28,740 | 63,762 | | 18 | tty2 | 115,851 | 4 | 57,480 | 58,371 | | 19 | Riley | 128,911 | 5 | 71,850 | 57,061 | | 20 | B2lee | 301,073 | 17 | 244,290 | 56,783 | | 21 | hans-jürgen [bergelt] | 256,202 | 14 | 201,180 | 55,022 | | 22 | wafflingdwarf | 53,057 | 0 | 0 | 53,057 | | 23 | Jonathan Connaughty | 51,045 | 0 | 0 | 51,045 | | 24 | vko | 51,017 | 0 | 0 | 51,017 | | 25 | Brent | 151,183 | 7 | 100,590 | 50,593 | +----+-----------------------+-----------+------+-----------+--------+

(*) ~Tasks: see below.
(**) [Tasks_expected] = [# Primes] * 14370; 14370 ~ Avg. Tasks/Prime

dannyridel
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Message 154296 - Posted: 18 Feb 2022 | 19:56:08 UTC - in response to Message 154253.

Unluckiest SGS crunchers:

Most tasks in the current range (n=1290000) with no primes (including DC) found:

+----+-----------------------+--------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks*| +----+-----------------------+--------+ | 1 | wafflingdwarf | 53,057 | | 2 | Jonathan Connaughty | 51,045 | | 3 | vko | 51,017 | | 4 | Russ | 46,032 | | 5 | Seth Johnson | 45,417 | | 6 | Henri Five | 41,505 | | 7 | SAHJ@H | 40,030 | | 8 | Shadowlurker | 39,495 | | 9 | mikachu | 34,483 | | 10 | Jeff Patrignani | 32,781 | | 11 | ManuelJC | 31,478 | | 12 | srowen | 26,659 | | 13 | Bazina hkfree | 26,601 | | 14 | otto_com | 26,489 | | 15 | Fabio MOREIRA | 26,412 | | 16 | Incqption | 26,173 | | 17 | SkyFall | 25,627 | | 18 | greyverse | 25,553 | | 19 | Omega | 25,456 | | 20 | Jason Jung | 25,231 | | 21 | fnord | 25,222 | | 22 | Tomasz Kaczmarek | 25,167 | | 23 | Dan and Marie Andrews | 25,110 | | 24 | Philip Muskovac | 24,993 | | 25 | Nebuchadnezzar | 24,925 | | 26 | KPX | 24,611 | | 27 | geeknik | 24,305 | | 28 | motqalden | 24,036 | | 29 | Richard Haselgrove | 23,924 | | 30 | Peciak | 23,872 | | 31 | Atis Kozulis | 22,614 | | 32 | Steve | 22,346 | | 33 | Terminator | 22,302 | | 34 | kretze | 22,022 | | 35 | Daniel Peterson | 21,960 | | 36 | Conor | 21,813 | | 37 | woaiwinnie2 | 21,013 | | 38 | vmv | 20,604 | | 39 | Hijikata | 20,374 | +----+-----------------------+--------+

(*)I used the following formula to approximate tasks done in the current range:
[SGS_tasks_current] ~ ( [SGS_credit] - 13.91 * [SGS_tasks_total] ) /26

Wow! And I thought I was unlucky!
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Omega

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Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 154319 - Posted: 19 Feb 2022 | 11:10:16 UTC

Updated the stats, added a "tasks done since last update column" & removed those with 0 RAC.

+----+-----------------------+--------+--------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks*| | +----+-----------------------+--------+--------+ | 1 | wafflingdwarf | 53,639 | + 582 | | 2 | Jonathan Connaughty | 51,543 | + 498 | | 3 | SAHJ@H | 40,091 | + 61 | | 4 | ManuelJC | 31,535 | + 57 | | 5 | Omega | 27,419 | + 1963 | | 6 | Fabio MOREIRA | 26,731 | + 319 | | 7 | Incqption | 26,173 | 0 | | 8 | SkyFall | 25,627 | 0 | | 9 | Jason Jung | 25,231 | 0 | | 10 | fnord | 25,222 | 0 | | 11 | KPX | 24,611 | 0 | | 12 | geeknik | 24,305 | 0 | | 13 | Richard Haselgrove | 24,171 | + 247 | | 14 | Steve | 22,443 | + 97 | | 15 | Terminator | 22,302 | 0 | | 16 | kretze | 22,058 | + 36 | | 17 | woaiwinnie2 | 21,021 | + 8 | | 18 | vmv | 20,604 | 0 | +----+-----------------------+--------+--------+

Who among the unlucky ones will be first to break the curse and find (or doublecheck) a SGS prime...?

dannyridel
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Message 154386 - Posted: 20 Feb 2022 | 19:55:03 UTC - in response to Message 154254.

Unluckiest SGS crunchers (part 2):

Second table includes those who've found primes but have more tasks (in the current range) than expected (based on number of primes [incl. DC] found):

I think you could also rank them by percentage skewed instead of just nominal difference of tasks, would that be clearer?
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 154449 - Posted: 22 Feb 2022 | 18:40:25 UTC

+----+-----------------------+--------+--------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks*| | +----+-----------------------+--------+--------+ | 1 | wafflingdwarf | 53,658 | + 19 | | 2 | Jonathan Connaughty | 52,100 | + 557 | | 3 | SAHJ@H | 40,161 | + 70 | | 4 | ManuelJC | 31,541 | + 6 | | 5 | Omega | 29,777 | + 2358 | | 6 | Fabio MOREIRA | 27,099 | + 368 | | 7 | Incqption | 26,173 | 0 | | 8 | SkyFall | 25,627 | 0 | | 9 | Jason Jung | 25,231 | 0 | | 10 | fnord | 25,222 | 0 | | 11 | KPX | 24,611 | 0 | | 12 | Richard Haselgrove | 24,482 | + 311 | | 13 | geeknik | 24,305 | 0 | | 14 | Steve | 22,573 | + 130 | | 15 | Terminator | 22,302 | 0 | | 16 | kretze | 22,104 | + 46 | | 17 | woaiwinnie2 | 21,024 | + 3 | | 18 | vmv | 20,604 | 0 | +----+-----------------------+--------+--------+

To put things into perspective:
After 53,658 tasks the probability of having found at least one prime is ~97.61%
or in other words, the chance of having found no prime is ~2.39%.
And yet...

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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Message 154487 - Posted: 23 Feb 2022 | 12:48:59 UTC
Last modified: 23 Feb 2022 | 12:55:41 UTC

On the flip side there are users like the latest SGS-prime discoverer Anto%* who found a prime after only ~2800 tasks.

To preempt the expected comments...: I'm not complaining, I congratulate her/him on her/his find; I'm merely remarking on the fact that lady luck seems to be generous to some and extremely withholding to others.

Werinbert

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Message 154499 - Posted: 23 Feb 2022 | 20:52:34 UTC - in response to Message 154449.

I think what you are missing here is a distribution of tasks per prime. A normal "bell curve" has few points on the edges and many points in the middle.

After 53,658 tasks the probability of having found at least one prime is ~97.61%
or in other words, the chance of having found no prime is ~2.39%.

If there were 98 people who have found primes within 50k tasks then it is not unreasonable to expect someone not getting a prime.

..... No matter how many heads in a row come up, the chance of getting tails on the next flip of a coin is still 50%.
____________
Werinbert is not prime... or PRPnet keeps telling me so.
Badge score: 12x3 + 1x4 + 2x6 + 2x7 + 1x8 + 1x9 + 1x10 = 93

Omega

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Message 154500 - Posted: 23 Feb 2022 | 22:44:23 UTC - in response to Message 154499.
Last modified: 23 Feb 2022 | 23:00:45 UTC

No matter how many heads in a row come up, the chance of getting tails on the next flip of a coin is still 50%.

Of course, each individual task has a 1 in ~14370 chance of being prime but...

After 53,658 tasks the probability of having found at least one prime is ~97.61%

I used present perfect tense(bolding) for a reason:
53,658 tasks combined have a ~98% chance of containing at least one prime.

then it is not unreasonable to expect someone not getting a prime.

True, that's why it's ~98% not 100%.
But honestly, when was the last time you encountered something in life that had a 98% chance of occurring and yet it didn't?

dannyridel
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Message 154502 - Posted: 23 Feb 2022 | 22:51:33 UTC - in response to Message 154500.

But honestly, when was the last time you encountered something in life that had a 98% chance of occurring and yet it didn't?

not to be annoying, but trying to find an SGS
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Werinbert

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Message 154507 - Posted: 24 Feb 2022 | 6:48:35 UTC - in response to Message 154500.

I don't know the numbers for PG... if the chance of not finding a prime in 54k tasks is 2.39% and if there are 1000 people who have crunched 54k tasks then I would expect that 24 of them would not have found a prime. If there are 2000 people in the cohort then I would expect 48 to not have found a prime.
____________
Werinbert is not prime... or PRPnet keeps telling me so.
Badge score: 12x3 + 1x4 + 2x6 + 2x7 + 1x8 + 1x9 + 1x10 = 93

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
Posts: 270
ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
RAC: 40,499

Message 154728 - Posted: 4 Mar 2022 | 15:49:21 UTC

Update: all users with 20,000+ tasks in the current range with no primes (incl. DC).
Includes a column for tasks done since last update (16 Feb 2022).

+----+-----------------------+--------+----------+ |Rank| Username | ~Tasks | | +----+-----------------------+--------+----------+ | 1 | wafflingdwarf | 54,538 | + 1,481 | | 2 | Jonathan Connaughty | 52,141 | + 1,096 | | 3 | vko | 51,017 | 0 | | 4 | Russ | 46,032 | 0 | | 5 | Seth Johnson | 45,417 | 0 | | 6 | Henri Five | 41,505 | 0 | | 7 | SAHJ@H | 40,330 | + 300 | | 8 | Shadowlurker | 39,495 | 0 | | 9 | Omega | 36,806 | + 11,350 | | 10 | mikachu | 34,483 | 0 | | 11 | Jeff Patrignani | 32,781 | 0 | | 12 | ManuelJC | 31,541 | + 63 | | 13 | Fabio MOREIRA | 28,217 | + 1,805 | | 14 | srowen | 26,659 | 0 | | 15 | Bazina hkfree | 26,601 | 0 | | 16 | otto_com | 26,489 | 0 | | 17 | Incqption | 26,173 | 0 | | 18 | SkyFall | 25,627 | 0 | | 19 | greyverse | 25,553 | 0 | | 20 | Richard Haselgrove | 25,424 | + 1,500 | | 21 | Jason Jung | 25,231 | 0 | | 22 | fnord | 25,222 | 0 | | 23 | Tomasz Kaczmarek | 25,167 | 0 | | 24 | Dan and Marie Andrews | 25,110 | 0 | | 25 | Philip Muskovac | 24,993 | 0 | | 26 | Nebuchadnezzar | 24,925 | 0 | | 27 | KPX | 24,611 | 0 | | 28 | geeknik | 24,305 | 0 | | 29 | motqalden | 24,036 | 0 | | 30 | Peciak | 23,872 | 0 | | 31 | Steve | 22,917 | + 571 | | 32 | Atis Kozulis | 22,614 | 0 | | 33 | kretze | 22,375 | + 353 | | 34 | Terminator | 22,302 | 0 | | 35 | Daniel Peterson | 21,960 | 0 | | 36 | Conor | 21,813 | 0 | | 37 | woaiwinnie2 | 21,024 | + 11 | | 38 | vmv | 20,604 | 0 | | 39 | Hijikata | 20,374 | 0 | +----+-----------------------+--------+----------+

Sadly, nobody on the list has found a prime yet.

P.S.: I managed to make it to the top 10. Hurray!
P.P.S.: I guess one could also see it as the bottom 10, mmh...

dannyridel
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Message 154801 - Posted: 11 Mar 2022 | 3:35:11 UTC

https://www.primegrid.com/workunit.php?wuid=781597568
Well, well. I am out of that list before even getting into that list. Took me ~17600 tasks.
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
Posts: 270
ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 154812 - Posted: 11 Mar 2022 | 15:38:07 UTC - in response to Message 154801.

https://www.primegrid.com/workunit.php?wuid=781597568
Well, well. I am out of that list before even getting into that list. Took me ~17600 tasks.

Congratulations!

I, on the other hand, am now at 42,500+ tasks and still nothing...
Gotta stay patient I guess.

Nick

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Message 154813 - Posted: 11 Mar 2022 | 15:50:19 UTC - in response to Message 154812.

https://www.primegrid.com/workunit.php?wuid=781597568
Well, well. I am out of that list before even getting into that list. Took me ~17600 tasks.

Congratulations!

I, on the other hand, am now at 42,500+ tasks and still nothing...
Gotta stay patient I guess.

I wish you to find one soon!
It has to be soon!
I have done 515947 tasks with 35 primes (5 of those 2nds).
515947/30 = 17198

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 154814 - Posted: 11 Mar 2022 | 18:40:26 UTC - in response to Message 154813.
Last modified: 11 Mar 2022 | 18:41:03 UTC

I have done 515947 tasks with 35 primes (5 of those 2nds).
515947/30 = 17198

IMO, for the purpose of calculating (your) average tasks/prime you should treat initial prime finds and doublechecks equally.
So you're at 515947/35 ~ 14741 tasks/prime.
Which is pretty much where I'm estimating the overall average tasks/prime to be. I put it around 14370 (it ebbs and flows over time depending on how many primes have been discovered recently).
Of course average doesn't mean anything for the individual. I'm at ~ 3*average but alas ...

I wish you to find one soon!
It has to be soon!

Thank you. I've been telling myself the same for a while now and, as the saying goes, hope springs eternal. :)

dannyridel
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Message 154819 - Posted: 11 Mar 2022 | 22:17:29 UTC - in response to Message 154814.
Last modified: 11 Mar 2022 | 22:17:54 UTC

I have done 515947 tasks with 35 primes (5 of those 2nds).
515947/30 = 17198

IMO, for the purpose of calculating (your) average tasks/prime you should treat initial prime finds and doublechecks equally.
So you're at 515947/35 ~ 14741 tasks/prime.
Which is pretty much where I'm estimating the overall average tasks/prime to be. I put it around 14370 (it ebbs and flows over time depending on how many primes have been discovered recently).
Of course average doesn't mean anything for the individual. I'm at ~ 3*average but alas ...

I wish you to find one soon!
It has to be soon!

Thank you. I've been telling myself the same for a while now and, as the saying goes, hope springs eternal. :)

I agree with Omega in terms of calculating the average tasks per prime. Good luck on prime-finding! It's always a wonderous moment to get your first...
The chances of you getting the PF vs a DC really depends on your computer, and in the case of roughly equivalent computing powers, the chances would be aruond 50%.
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
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Message 154861 - Posted: 16 Mar 2022 | 18:42:44 UTC

#4 now with 46,466 tasks.

#3 vko (51,017)
#2 Jonathan Connaughty (52,141)
#1 wafflingdwarf (54,635)

Let's see if I can overtake them as well before finding (or dc'ing) a SGS prime.
Assuming of course that I will in fact eventually find one...

Omega

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Message 154903 - Posted: 22 Mar 2022 | 20:58:28 UTC

#3 ~ 51,069 tasks

#2 Jonathan Connaughty (52,141)
#1 wafflingdwarf (55,006)

Omega

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Message 154922 - Posted: 24 Mar 2022 | 12:55:22 UTC

#2 ~ 52,306 tasks

#1 wafflingdwarf (55,276)

Omega

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Message 154979 - Posted: 29 Mar 2022 | 15:54:55 UTC

Mmh, wafflingdwarf seems determined not to give up her/his #1 spot:

#2 ~ 56,022 tasks
#1 wafflingdwarf (57,198)

And the probabilities for wafflingdwarf (and me)

≥1 prime: 98.13% (97.97)
≥2 primes: 90.70% (90.07)
≥3 primes: 75.90% (74.66)
≥4 primes: 56.27% (54.65)

dannyridel
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Message 154981 - Posted: 29 Mar 2022 | 18:46:58 UTC - in response to Message 154979.

Mmh, wafflingdwarf seems determined not to give up her/his #1 spot:

#2 ~ 56,022 tasks
#1 wafflingdwarf (57,198)

And the probabilities for wafflingdwarf (and me)

≥1 prime: 98.13% (97.97)
≥2 primes: 90.70% (90.07)
≥3 primes: 75.90% (74.66)
≥4 primes: 56.27% (54.65)

Or...they are determined to give you the first spot by getting a prime :D
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
Posts: 270
ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
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Message 155016 - Posted: 2 Apr 2022 | 14:28:07 UTC

It's official, with ~ 58,713 tasks in the current range and no primes found (or dc'ed) I'm now the unluckiest SGS cruncher. wafflingdwarf is a close 2nd with 58,281 tasks.

However, the more salient point is that we've both done more than 58k tasks (>4*avg.) and still neither of us has found a prime. Isn't that mind-bogglingly unlucky?!

Updated probabilities:

≥1 prime: 98.32%
≥2 primes: 91.45%
≥3 primes: 77.42%
≥4 primes: 58.31%

Nick

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Message 155017 - Posted: 2 Apr 2022 | 15:26:17 UTC - in response to Message 155016.
Last modified: 2 Apr 2022 | 15:29:19 UTC

It's official, with ~ 58,713 tasks in the current range and no primes found (or dc'ed) I'm now the unluckiest SGS cruncher. wafflingdwarf is a close 2nd with 58,281 tasks.

However, the more salient point is that we've both done more than 58k tasks (>4*avg.) and still neither of us has found a prime. Isn't that mind-bogglingly unlucky?!

Updated probabilities:

≥1 prime: 98.32%
≥2 primes: 91.45%
≥3 primes: 77.42%
≥4 primes: 58.31%

I reckon you guys have an unlucky sink going on there.
You have unlucky being focussed on this.
Which may open up luck elsewhere.
Time to buy a lottery ticket!
Edit: This is magical thinking - there is no connection - but it can be fun to think there is.

Werinbert

Joined: 9 Jun 13
Posts: 187
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RAC: 413,014

Message 155025 - Posted: 3 Apr 2022 | 0:30:32 UTC

Isn't that mind-bogglingly unlucky?!

At a >1% chance it is not mind bogglingly unlucky, merely just unlucky.
____________
Werinbert is not prime... or PRPnet keeps telling me so.
Badge score: 12x3 + 1x4 + 2x6 + 2x7 + 1x8 + 1x9 + 1x10 = 93

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
Posts: 270
ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
RAC: 40,499

Message 155048 - Posted: 4 Apr 2022 | 14:29:04 UTC - in response to Message 155025.
Last modified: 4 Apr 2022 | 14:32:57 UTC

At a >1% chance it is not mind bogglingly unlucky, merely just unlucky.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here.
It seems to me how one chooses to describe the severity of unluckiness would be wholly subjective. Unless there are universally recognized standard levels of degrees of unluckiness I'm not aware of.

Anyway, I'm now over 60k tasks (~60,058) with a probability ≥1 prime of 98.47%.
I will hit 99% at 66,105 tasks. So I guess I have a new goal :)

Nick

Joined: 11 Jul 11
Posts: 2216
ID: 105020
Credit: 8,131,343,843
RAC: 1,429,262

Message 155051 - Posted: 4 Apr 2022 | 21:40:21 UTC - in response to Message 155048.

At a >1% chance it is not mind bogglingly unlucky, merely just unlucky.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here.
It seems to me how one chooses to describe the severity of unluckiness would be wholly subjective. Unless there are universally recognized standard levels of degrees of unluckiness I'm not aware of.

Anyway, I'm now over 60k tasks (~60,058) with a probability ≥1 prime of 98.47%.
I will hit 99% at 66,105 tasks. So I guess I have a new goal :)

I "did" 3rd year Physics pracs and never got it wrt probability.
That was because I spent my time drinking and smoking cones.
My point is that is unlucky.

Omega

Joined: 20 Apr 08
Posts: 270
ID: 21694
Credit: 57,701,451
RAC: 40,499

Message 155220 - Posted: 25 Apr 2022 | 19:46:12 UTC

I finally found one, it was 'just' a DC, but still...
Hopefully now the curse is broken :)

Vato
Volunteer tester

Joined: 2 Feb 08
Posts: 841
ID: 18447
Credit: 644,494,094
RAC: 544,152

Message 155228 - Posted: 26 Apr 2022 | 23:43:05 UTC - in response to Message 155220.

at last - well done
____________

Dirk Sellsted

Joined: 15 Feb 17
Posts: 195
ID: 492091
Credit: 220,541,481
RAC: 388,517

Message 157669 - Posted: 4 Nov 2022 | 5:51:47 UTC

Grave digging a thread here. I did a rush on SGS as it was falling off the t5k. I was actually trying to be the "unluckiest" back in 2018, i think i got to third with 35343 tasks when i finally got a dc prime.

Message boards : Sophie Germain Prime Search : Average workunits per prime

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