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BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

I was wondering if the probability for nearWW primes is linear with A. It feels like it should be (which doesn't say much) and from the findings so far it could be true: 8 for A<=100 and 98 for A<=1000.
If it is, we could very well find a A=1 since we're at 10 % done.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 



For a prime, say p = 1212976000000000003 (taken as any prime near the current leading edge), there are 1212976000000000003 different values of A which we would expect (if we do not know anything else) to be equally probable. These are: 606488000000000001
606488000000000000
606487999999999999
606487999999999998
...
3
2
1
0
+1
+2
+3
...
+606487999999999998
+606487999999999999
+606488000000000000
+606488000000000001 There are 1800 values with 100 < A <= 1000.
There are 180 values with 10 < A <= 100.
There are 20 values with 0 < A <= 10.
There is 1 value with A = 0.
So in the long run, we expect the counts in the "categories" to be in the ratio 1800 : 180 : 20 : 1.
Just one single prime in the A = 0 category will earn eternal fame to PrimeGrid. Statistically, expect about 1 such prime when we have 1800 primes in 100 < A <= 1000.
/JeppeSN 


Yves GallotVolunteer developer Project scientist Send message
Joined: 19 Aug 12 Posts: 820 ID: 164101 Credit: 305,989,513 RAC: 3,131

The probability for nearprimes is linear with A.
The ending point for PrimeGrid's prior Wieferich search on PRPNet is 6.07132e17 and for WallSunSun search is 2.6438336e17.
If p = 12e17 (the current leading edge),
the expected number of Wieferich nearprimes with A <= 1000 is (log(log(12e17))  log(log(6.07132e17))) * 2001 ~ 33
the expected number of WallSunSun nearprimes with A <= 1000 is (log(log(12e17))  log(log(2.6438336e17))) * 2001 ~ 74
28 Wieferich and 70 WallSunSun nearprimes were found with A <= 1000.
For A <= 10, the expected number of Wieferich and WallSunSun nearprimes is (33 + 74) / 100 ~ 1. 


BurVolunteer tester
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So far the results match nicely with 13 and 130. I'm not so sure it holds when it comes to A = 0.
We don't look at the actual remainder, but at A = remainder/p, right? So it accomodates for the decreasing prime density at increasing size of the numbers. Thus my feeling is, A = 0 = remainder, will be much less probable and it's probability decreases with increasing size of the number  same as the prime density decreases.
Even more so, if 1800 for A<=1000 is really sufficient to produce a Wieferich or WSS prime, then we are 8% there? That seems way too easy to me. If 1.5E18 is 8%, we'd find one within 2E19.
Also I read the density of Wieferich primes is log(log(n)) for 1 to n. Given that 2 are already known, we'd need to go up to 10^1000 to have a good chance to find another one. Even if we chalk one of them up to pure chance, another would be due only within 1...10^100. Far beyond our reach.
Or did I get you wrong?
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 



When p (the primes we search) is doubled, the probability in each category (100 < A <= 1000, etc.) is halved. So yes, it becomes harder when p grows.
But we think the proportion 1800 : 180 : 20 : 1 should stay the same, as p grows.
The log(log(n)) heuristics is derived from thinking exactly in this way, I would say. Note the following (natural logarithms):
log(log(1.5e+1)) = 1
log(log(1.6e+3)) = 2
log(log(5.3e+9)) = 3
log(log(5.1e+23)) = 4
log(log(2.9e+64)) = 5
So we should find about 1 Wieferich (plus 1 WallSunSun) between 5.3e+9 and 5.1e+23. And find the same between 5.1e+23 and 2.9e+64. So this shows how they are supposed to get rarer.
But it should not be "memorizing", so given that the leading edge is near exp(exp(3.7)) right now, no matter how many have been found up to now, we should expect to find about 1 Wieferich (and 1 WallSunSun) between now and exp(exp(1 + 3.7)) = 5.6e+47. But you see, we are not able to search that far. So from today and on, we have to be extremely lucky to find anything.
In an old post, I made a graph, I think I can find it.
(Of course, we have no proof these heuristics are correct. In theory, Wieferich primes could be frequent or more rare.)
/JeppeSN 


Yves GallotVolunteer developer Project scientist Send message
Joined: 19 Aug 12 Posts: 820 ID: 164101 Credit: 305,989,513 RAC: 3,131

(Of course, we have no proof these heuristics are correct. In theory, Wieferich primes could be frequent or more rare.)
And WSS primes may not exist if A = 0 is impossible for a currently unknown reason.




Me:
There are 1800 values with 100 < A <= 1000.
There are 180 values with 10 < A <= 100.
There are 20 values with 0 < A <= 10.
There is 1 value with A = 0.
So in the long run, we expect the counts in the "categories" to be in the ratio 1800 : 180 : 20 : 1.
Just one single prime in the A = 0 category will earn eternal fame to PrimeGrid. Statistically, expect about 1 such prime when we have 1800 primes in 100 < A <= 1000.
I just realied the stats page does not use:
100 < A <= 1000
10 < A <= 100
0 < A <= 10
A = 0
It uses:
0 <= A <= 1000
0 <= A <= 100
0 <= A <= 10
A = 0
So the ratio with that is simply 2001 : 201 : 21 : 1.
/JeppeSN 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

edit: I only saw Jeppe's post about the stats page now, so I adjusted the number accordingly.
I made a table comparing the actual number of A in each category with the expected number, iff (oh yeah) 2001:201:21:1 is correct. I only redistributed the number of nearWW to follow that ratio, this is by no means a calculation of the expected total number of nearWW.
Number of nearWW found:
201
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected

1000  201  
100  24  20
10  1  2
0  0  0
Based on the current number
of nearWW found, the probability
for a WW or Wieferich prime is:
10 %.
At 1.8e19 we would reach:
56 %.
100 % would be reached at:
3.2e19.
The "forecast" was made by taking the current upper bound of tested numbers.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update
Tests upper bound: 3.3e18 / 18e18 (18 %)
Number of nearWW found: 205
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  205    
100  24  21  +14 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
10 %.
At 18e18 we would reach:
53 %.
100 % would be reached at:
34e18.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update
Tests upper bound: 3.7e18 / 18e18 (21 %)
Number of nearWW found: 214
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  214    
100  25  21  +19 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
11 %.
At 18e18 we would reach:
54 %.
100 % would be reached at:
34e18.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update
Tests upper bound: 4.3e18 / 18e18 (24 %)
Number of nearWW found: 224
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  224    
100  26  23  +13 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
11 %.
At 18e18 we would reach:
46 %.
100 % would be reached at:
39e18.
What the prediction doesn't take into account is that the nearWWs are apparently getting more rare with increasing p.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 26042021
Tests upper bound: 4.6e18 / 18e18 (26 %, +2 %)
Number of nearWW found: 234 (+10)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  234    
100  27  24  +13 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
12 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
47 % (+1 %).
100 % would be reached at:
38e18 (1e18).
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 03052021
Tests upper bound: 4.8e18 / 18e18 (27 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 236 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  236    
100  28  24  +17 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
12 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
44 % (3 %)
100 % would be reached at:
41e18 (+3e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 10052021
Tests upper bound: 5.1e18 / 18e18 (28 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 240 (+4)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  240    
100  29  24  +21 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
12 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
42 % (2 %)
100 % would be reached at:
43e18 (+2e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


Ravi FernandoProject administrator Volunteer tester Project scientist Send message
Joined: 21 Mar 19 Posts: 211 ID: 1108183 Credit: 13,824,714 RAC: 7,734

What the prediction doesn't take into account is that the nearWWs are apparently getting more rare with increasing p.
They areso much so that the expected number of WW's in a range [a, b] is best modeled not as const * (ba) but as log log b  log log a. For example, the previously unsearched range of WW is [2.63691e17, 5.14e18] for WSS and [5.97077e17, 5.14e18] for Wieferich, so one would expect about 0.0714 new WSS primes and 0.0513 new Wieferich primes, along with 143 and 103 nearfinds (i.e. 2001x more) respectively. We've actually found 141 and 99 respectively, with two more Wieferich nearfinds currently waiting for doublecheckers. Pretty accurate!
Unfortunately, this means that we've already missed our best shot. The same formula predicts about 58 more nearfinds of each of the two types below 2^64, with about 0.0292 actual finds of each type. So overall about a 6% chance of success. 


BurVolunteer tester
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Thanks Ravi, is it still correct to estimate the expected number of nearWW and WW from the actual number of nearWW found? I.e. what I do with that table.
Update 17052021
Tests upper bound: 5.4e18 / 18e18 (30 %, +3 %)
Number of nearWW found: 247 (+7)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  247    
100  30  25  +20 %
10  1  2  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
12 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
42 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
43e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


Ravi FernandoProject administrator Volunteer tester Project scientist Send message
Joined: 21 Mar 19 Posts: 211 ID: 1108183 Credit: 13,824,714 RAC: 7,734

Yes, the table looks good to me. 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 03252021
Tests upper bound: 5.6e18 / 18e18 (31 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 250 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  250    
100  30  25  +20 %
10  1  2  50 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
40 % (2 %)
100 % would be reached at:
45e18 (+2e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 06012021
Tests upper bound: 5.7e18 / 18e18 (32 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 251 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  251    
100  30  25  +20 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
40 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
46e18 (+e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 06072021
Tests upper bound: 5.9e18 / 18e18 (33 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 255 (+4)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  255    
100  30  26  +15 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
39 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
46e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 06142021
Tests upper bound: 6.0e18 / 18e18 (33 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 256 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  256    
100  30  26  +15 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
38 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
47e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 06212021
Tests upper bound: 6.1e18 / 18e18 (34 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 259 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  259    
100  30  26  +15 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
38 % (+0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
47e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 06282021
Tests upper bound: 6.3e18 / 18e18 (35 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 262 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  262    
100  30  26  +15 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
37 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
48e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 07052021
Tests upper bound: 6.4e18 / 18e18 (36 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 265 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  265    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
37 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
48e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 07122021
Tests upper bound: 6.6e18 / 18e18 (37 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 267 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  267    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
36 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
50e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 19072021
Tests upper bound: 6.7e18 / 18e18 (37 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 267 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  267    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
36 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
50e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 26072021
Tests upper bound: 6.8e18 / 18e18 (38 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 268 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  268    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
36 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
51e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 03082021
Tests upper bound: 7.0e18 / 18e18 (39 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 269 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  269    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
13 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
35 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
52e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 09082021
Tests upper bound: 7.1e18 / 18e18 (39 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 270 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  270    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
34 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
53e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


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Update 17082021
Tests upper bound: 7.2e18 / 18e18 (40 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 272 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  272    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
34 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
53e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 24082021
Tests upper bound: 7.4e18 / 18e18 (41 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 273 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  273    
100  30  27  +11 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
33 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
54e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 31082021
Tests upper bound: 7.6e18 / 18e18 (42 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 274 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  274    
100  30  28  +7 %
10  1  3  67 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
32 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
56e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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A lot of finds this week (ok, 1.5 weeks) and also a WSS with A=1!
Update 09092021
Tests upper bound: 7.7e18 / 18e18 (43 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 279 (+5)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  279    
100  31  28  +11 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
33 % (+1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
55e18 (1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 13092021
Tests upper bound: 7.8e18 / 18e18 (43 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 279 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  279    
100  31  28  +11 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
32 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
56e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 20092021
Tests upper bound: 8.0e18 / 18e18 (44 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 281 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  281    
100  31  28  +11 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
32 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
57e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Update 27092021
Tests upper bound: 8.1e18 / 18e18 (45 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 283 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  283    
100  31  28  +11 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
31 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
57e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 04102021
Tests upper bound: 8.3e18 / 18e18 (46 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 283 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  283    
100  31  28  +11 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
31 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
59e18 (+2e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


Nick Send message
Joined: 11 Jul 11 Posts: 2298 ID: 105020 Credit: 8,393,839,262 RAC: 6,395,075

I could understand this if you said  percentage wise  how much worse the chances are getting.
Compared to first estimate.
Compared to recent. 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

You can see that from the ever decreasing "At 18e18 we would reach:" value. It decreases because we find fewer and fewer near hits. Or did you mean something else?
Honestly, I'm not really convinced it makes sense as a forecast (likely it doesn't) since it doesn't take into account that these misses already happened and probability doesn't care what did occur. Just because we found no WWS prime with that many nears doesn't mean we're bound to find one with a specific probability.
Anyway, I think it's a nice statistic that shows how the subproject progresses and it also shows that the "nearness" appears to be statistically distributed as JeppeSN suggested.
Update 11102021
Tests upper bound: 8.5e18 / 18e18 (47 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 285 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  285    
100  31  28  +7 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
30 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
60e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 18102021
Tests upper bound: 8.7e18 / 18e18 (48 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 288 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  288    
100  31  28  +7 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
14 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
30 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
60e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

We reached 2^63 of 2^64 tests. At first glance it looks like we're nearly done, but exponentials being counterintuitive to many people (like me) and it's just half way done... ;)
Update 05112021
Tests upper bound: 9.2234e18 / 18e18 = 2^63 / 2^64 (50 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 299 (+4)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  299    
100  31  30  +3 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
62e18 (+2e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 09112021
Tests upper bound: 9.3e18 / 18e18 (51 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 301 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  301    
100  33  30  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
62e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
Send message
Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 15112021
Tests upper bound: 9.4e18 / 18e18 (51 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 302 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  302    
100  33  30  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
62e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 22112021
Tests upper bound: 9.5e18 / 18e18 (52 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 302 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  302    
100  33  30  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % ( 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
63e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

A bit late...
Update 29112021
Tests upper bound: 9.6e18 / 18e18 (52 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 305 (+3)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  305    
100  34  31  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % ( 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
63e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Things were slow. The GFNchallenge seems to have drained GPU power from WWSS. My 1660 Super will be back soon though, so expect a big speedup next week.
Update 13122021
Tests upper bound: 9.8e18 / 18e18 (53 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 308 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  308    
100  34  31  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
64e18 (+1e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

No new nearWWSSprimes this week. Not unexpected, since during the challenge the completion rate had dropped from 14k/day to 5k/day. It's back up again though, so unless many computers take a break over the christmas holidays, hopefully this week will fare better again.
Update 20122021
Tests upper bound: 9.9e18 / 18e18 (54 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 308 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  308    
100  34  31  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
15 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
29 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
64e18 (+0e18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 03012022
Last update ist two weeks back, so mind that when looking at the differences. And we reached 1e19. Only 8 quintillion numbers left!
Tests upper bound: 10.1E18 / 18E18 (55 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 310 (+2)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  310    
100  34  31  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
28 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
65E18 (+1E18)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 



Cool. The rest of the discoveries we do, will have twenty digits, like 10017779178182939981 by Grzegorz Roman Granowski. /JeppeSN 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 10012022
Tests upper bound: 10.2e18 / 18e18 (55 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 311 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  311    
100  34  31  +10 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+ 1%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
28 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
66e18 (+1e18)
Last week average numbers tested per day:
1.41E16 (+ N/A)
ETA project completion:
582 days (+ N/A)
Things are still slow, last week's average is 9400 completed tasks/day. Due to DC that corresponds to 14E16 numbers checked / day. At that rate it'll be 582 days to complete the project. I added that to the stats.
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


Dave Send message
Joined: 13 Feb 12 Posts: 3207 ID: 130544 Credit: 2,284,963,962 RAC: 784,670

582 days could be a best case therefore but if loads of people jump on it how dramatically could that come down? I'm playing safe & only parking at 1.1B credit  2B would take me nearly all year but only assuming enough work! 


Yves GallotVolunteer developer Project scientist Send message
Joined: 19 Aug 12 Posts: 820 ID: 164101 Credit: 305,989,513 RAC: 3,131

582 days could be a best case therefore but if loads of people jump on it how dramatically could that come down? I'm playing safe & only parking at 1.1B credit  2B would take me nearly all year but only assuming enough work!
WW has been running for 380 days and the leading edge is 10,200 P.
Then the remaining time is 380 * (2^64/10200e15)  380 = 307 days.
The Riemann's Birthday Challenge (1720 September) could be the end of the project. 



The Riemann's Birthday Challenge (1720 September) could be the end of the project.
It would be an unusual challenge if we ran out of work before the end of the challenge. /JeppeSN 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Yes, it's only the ETA based on last week's numbers. I clarified that in the stats.
Update 17012022
Tests upper bound: 10.3e18 / 18e18 (56 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 312 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  312    
100  35  31  +13 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
28 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
66e18 (+0e18)
Last week average numbers tested per day:
13.3E15 (0.8E15)
ETA project completion (based on last week only):
609 days (+ 27 days)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 24012022
Tests upper bound: 10.4e18 / 18e18 (57 %, +1 %)
Number of nearWW found: 313 (+1)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  313    
100  35  31  +13 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+ 0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
28 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
67e18 (+1e18)
Last week average numbers tested per day:
12.2E15 (1.1E15)
ETA project completion (based on last week only):
657 days (+ 46 days)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

No new nearhit. High GPU prices are hurting innocent DCproject! The humanity!
Update 01012022
Tests upper bound: 10.5e18 / 18e18 (57 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 313 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  313    
100  35  31  +13 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
27 % (1 %)
100 % would be reached at:
67e18 (+1e18)
Last week average numbers tested per day:
16.0E15 (+3.8E15)
ETA project completion (based on last week only):
494 days ( 163 days)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 


BurVolunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Feb 20 Posts: 515 ID: 1241833 Credit: 414,481,880 RAC: 219

Update 07022022
Tests upper bound: 10.5e18 / 18e18 (57 %, +0 %)
Number of nearWW found: 313 (+0)
Distribution:
A<=  Actual  Expected  Deviation

1000  313    
100  35  31  +13 %
10  2  3  33 %
0  0  0  0 %
Based on the current number of nearWW
found, the probability for a WW prime is:
16 % (+0%).
At 18e18 we would reach:
27 % (0 %)
100 % would be reached at:
67e18 (+0e18)
Last week average numbers tested per day:
8.6E15 (7.4E15)
ETA project completion (based on last week only):
922 days (+ 428 days)
____________
1281979 * 2^485014 + 1 is prime ... no further hits up to: n = 5,700,000 



Just curious if Bur might of forgotten to update this sub project stats. Hopefully everything is OK for him. 



Greetings ... will there be an update ... regarding WW ?
the last was over 2 months ago !
regards, Grzegorz Roman Granowski
____________




I think he might just have gotten tired of this or forgothe was last online 10 days ago on mersenneforum.
____________
My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1




The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
____________



Nick Send message
Joined: 11 Jul 11 Posts: 2298 ID: 105020 Credit: 8,393,839,262 RAC: 6,395,075

The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
I am confused if this tells us how much the project is finished on an ongoing basis.
How, please, can I work out how much is left to be done?
The rate this has picked up recently, WW may not be a viable challenge in September.
(Really I am worried about not getting the next badge) 



The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
I am confused if this tells us how much the project is finished on an ongoing basis.
How, please, can I work out how much is left to be done?
The rate this has picked up recently, WW may not be a viable challenge in September.
(Really I am worried about not getting the next badge)
The leading edge is now 12,612.271P. The limit of the software for project is 18,000P, so that is when the project will end. So we are at 70% now.
For reference, each work unit advances the project by .003P, so my 3070 is advancing the project by about .270P each day.
____________



Nick Send message
Joined: 11 Jul 11 Posts: 2298 ID: 105020 Credit: 8,393,839,262 RAC: 6,395,075

The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
I am confused if this tells us how much the project is finished on an ongoing basis.
How, please, can I work out how much is left to be done?
The rate this has picked up recently, WW may not be a viable challenge in September.
(Really I am worried about not getting the next badge)
The leading edge is now 12,612.271P. The limit of the software for project is 18,000P, so that is when the project will end. So we are at 70% now.
For reference, each work unit advances the project by .003P, so my 3070 is advancing the project by about .270P each day.
I like to use the force in these calculations  oh crap  I won't get the next badge.
But I am going to go for it.
It is worthwhile  to try. 



The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
I am confused if this tells us how much the project is finished on an ongoing basis.
How, please, can I work out how much is left to be done?
The rate this has picked up recently, WW may not be a viable challenge in September.
(Really I am worried about not getting the next badge)
The leading edge is now 12,612.271P. The limit of the software for project is 18,000P, so that is when the project will end. So we are at 70% now.
For reference, each work unit advances the project by .003P, so my 3070 is advancing the project by about .270P each day.
I like to use the force in these calculations  oh crap  I won't get the next badge.
But I am going to go for it.
It is worthwhile  to try.
Ironically the more of us that go for badges, the less likely any of us are to be able to progress. My plan is to stick it out here on WW at least until I get to 200m credit in a couple months or until the project runs dry. Weâ€™ll see which comes first and how I feel at that point.
____________



Nick Send message
Joined: 11 Jul 11 Posts: 2298 ID: 105020 Credit: 8,393,839,262 RAC: 6,395,075

The leading edge is 11,706.982 P (visible on http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_subprojects.php), which means that the project is just over 65% now.
I am confused if this tells us how much the project is finished on an ongoing basis.
How, please, can I work out how much is left to be done?
The rate this has picked up recently, WW may not be a viable challenge in September.
(Really I am worried about not getting the next badge)
The leading edge is now 12,612.271P. The limit of the software for project is 18,000P, so that is when the project will end. So we are at 70% now.
For reference, each work unit advances the project by .003P, so my 3070 is advancing the project by about .270P each day.
I like to use the force in these calculations  oh crap  I won't get the next badge.
But I am going to go for it.
It is worthwhile  to try.
Ironically the more of us that go for badges, the less likely any of us are to be able to progress. My plan is to stick it out here on WW at least until I get to 200m credit in a couple months or until the project runs dry. Weâ€™ll see which comes first and how I feel at that point.
That is the pragmatic approach.
Unfortunately (and this is great for getting the work done) there are lunatics that want to crunch more than other crunchers.
I put my hand up. I am a lunatic. At least in this.
I have noticed people increasing in WW.




The leading edge is now 12,612.271P. The limit of the software for project is 18,000P, so that is when the project will end. So we are at 70% now.
For those who want to be very precise, the limit of the software is:
2^64 = 18'446'744'073'709'551'616
so about 18'446.744 P.
Seems like the current 0.003 P work unit size will take us to 18'446.743 P. Then there will be a fraction of a work unit from there to the software limit.
/JeppeSN 



The leading edge is currently 13,385.296P. This means the project is 72.56%. In the last month, the project has averaged 14590 tasks per day, which means the project has about 231 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 40.49 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




The leading edge is currently 13,609.720P. This means the project is 73.78% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 15660 tasks per day, which means the project has about 205 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 38.69 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




The leading edge is currently 13,799.158P. This means the project is 74.81% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 16560 tasks per day, which means the project has about 187 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 37.18 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________



GDBSend message
Joined: 15 Nov 11 Posts: 298 ID: 119185 Credit: 4,060,753,558 RAC: 1,939,952

So, the "âˆž" in the B column for WW on the home page, isn't really true?
____________




So, the "âˆž" in the B column for WW on the home page, isn't really true?
It is true from the perspective that the admins do not need to load work for the project and from the perspective that the project could go on forever if the software supported it. Unfortunately the software would need to be rewritten to proceed past a point that we are steadily approaching.
____________




It is true from the perspective that the admins do not need to load work for the project and from the perspective that the project could go on forever if the software supported it. Unfortunately the software would need to be rewritten to proceed past a point that we are steadily approaching.
Also, right now we are checking all primes between 2^63 and 2^64, i.e. all 64bit primes, to see if any has the Wieferich property or the WallSunSun property. If we were to check 65bit primes (i.e. all the primes up to 2^65), then it would be slower because these numbers do not seem to fit as well into the hardware. But as you say, we do not even have appropriate software for it.
There are 425656284035217743 primes with at most 64 bits
There are 412246861431389469 primes with exactly 65 bits
So a hypothetical project to go from where WW ends to the next power of two would test almost as many prime numbers as we did in total up to the current software limit. However, the expected chance to find something is smaller for bigger primes, so it would still be very lucky if we found a true Wieferich or WallSunSun prime (A=0) in such an interval.
/JeppeSN 


Yves GallotVolunteer developer Project scientist Send message
Joined: 19 Aug 12 Posts: 820 ID: 164101 Credit: 305,989,513 RAC: 3,131

For WallSunSun prime, it is time to hand over the problem to mathematicians.
No prime for p < 2^{64}... probably an hidden property that could be found: no WallSunSun prime exists. 



I think WallSunSun primes exist. /JeppeSN 



The leading edge is currently 13,966.825P. This means the project is 75.71% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 16790 tasks per day, which means the project has about 178 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 35.84 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




The leading edge is currently 14,149.069P. This means the project is 76.70% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 17160 tasks per day, which means the project has about 167 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 34.38 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




means the project has about 167 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
But there is a WW challenge in 41 days. That will change something. If we do 20 times the normal rate during those 3 days, there could be about two months left after the challenge.
The project could end before the turn of the year.
/JeppeSN 



means the project has about 167 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
But there is a WW challenge in 41 days. That will change something. If we do 20 times the normal rate during those 3 days, there could be about two months left after the challenge.
The project could end before the turn of the year.
/JeppeSN
It is going to throw off the calculation based on average tasks completed per day as well. It will be an overall strong push towards the end of the project.
____________




The leading edge is currently 14,329.645P. This means the project is 77.68% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 17640 tasks per day, which means the project has about 156 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 32.93 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
The project has been advancing forward by about 1% per week, which means that two different mechanisms for estimating when the project will finish are pretty close to each other. Looks like it will be 56 months, ignoring the potentially substantial impact that the challenge will have. If the challenge increases the amount of work done by 20x, then that means that there is really about three months of time left before the project finishes.
____________




The leading edge is currently 14,516.467P. This means the project is 78.69% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 17330 tasks per day, which means the project has about 151 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 31.44 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




The leading edge is currently 14,706.865P. This means the project is 79.73% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 17430 tasks per day, which means the project has about 143 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. There is about 29.92 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
____________




... This means the project is 79.73% complete. In the last month, the project has averaged 17430 tasks per day, which means the project has about 143 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. ...
The next challenge will be a 3 day WW crunch challenge  September 1720)
I imagine the boost it will provide.
____________
"Accidit in puncto, quod non contingit in anno."
Something that does not occur in a year may, perchance, happen in a moment. 



The leading edge is currently 14909.302P.
This means the project is 80.82% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 17960 tasks per day, which means the project has about 131 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 22050 tasks, which means the project has about 107 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 28.3 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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Greetings ...
a race should propably speed up the moment of finding A = 0
so let's comptete ...
and regards, Grzegorz Roman Granowski ...
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The leading edge is currently 15115.198P.
This means the project is 81.94% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 18220 tasks per day, which means the project has about 122 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 19050 tasks, which means the project has about 117 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 26.65 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
The next update will be in the middle of the challenge. It will be interesting to see how far the project is catapulted forward by the challenge. My guestimate is that there will be about 60 days of work left after the challenge is over, meaning that we will end at around 92% of the project completed.
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The leading edge is currently 15478.615P.
This means the project is 83.91% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 20060 tasks per day, which means the project has about 99 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 97850 tasks, which means the project has about 20 more days before it will be completed at the current rate. However this is a rate from the challenge, and so it is not representative of when the project will actually finish.
There is about 23.75 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 16168.447P.
This means the project is 87.65% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 31510 tasks per day, which means the project has about 48 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 20990 tasks, which means the project has about 72 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 18.23 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
The challenge caused quite the advancement, but there is still likely to be a little more than two months before the project finishes.
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Dave Send message
Joined: 13 Feb 12 Posts: 3207 ID: 130544 Credit: 2,284,963,962 RAC: 784,670

Parked at 1,100,000,000. I am done. 



The leading edge is currently 16319.773P.
This means the project is 88.47% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 31410 tasks per day, which means the project has about 45 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 15030 tasks, which means the project has about 94 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 17.02 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 16460.521P.
This means the project is 89.23% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 30140 tasks per day, which means the project has about 44 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate. The monthly completion rate is still very much skewed by the last challenge.
In the last day, the project completed 14640 tasks, which means the project has about 90 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 15.89 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 16619.257P.
This means the project is 90.09% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 29200 tasks per day, which means the project has about 42 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 15500 tasks, which means the project has about 79 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 14.62 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 16619.257P. ...
...about 42 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
So this is the last chance for badges?
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"MiauiKatze" is german and means as much as "mewing cat"!
 


Dave Send message
Joined: 13 Feb 12 Posts: 3207 ID: 130544 Credit: 2,284,963,962 RAC: 784,670

Yep. 



The leading edge is currently 16619.257P. ...
...about 42 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
So this is the last chance for badges?
It's actually going to be closer to the 79 day estimate since the monthly rate is still skewed by the challenge that happened a couple weeks ago, although these estimates will be more volatile as the amount of remaining work decreases and people either pile onto the project to burn towards their goals at the end, or they drop off of the project once they have reached their goals.
____________



Nick Send message
Joined: 11 Jul 11 Posts: 2298 ID: 105020 Credit: 8,393,839,262 RAC: 6,395,075

The leading edge is currently 16619.257P. ...
...about 42 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
So this is the last chance for badges?
It's actually going to be closer to the 79 day estimate since the monthly rate is still skewed by the challenge that happened a couple weeks ago, although these estimates will be more volatile as the amount of remaining work decreases and people either pile onto the project to burn towards their goals at the end, or they drop off of the project once they have reached their goals.
Or random things happen, like me starting up WW again.
I think the polite thing to do is to not do WW.
Which is ultimately bemusing.
Maybe it is good practice to consider things that don't matter?
I am not saying maths doesn't matter  it is the only subject that can be true?
(It came to light a little difficulty with the axioms, which I understand that Mathematicians have correctly ignored. Not even Maths is able to be fully abstracted from the uncertainty of reality)
I am not sure who set off this frenzy at the pointy end of the project  I apologise if it was me.
Edit: I am hugely exaggerating about the frenzy part  I have seen only one other person start up again. 



I think the polite thing to do is to not do WW.
No. /JeppeSN 


MonkeydeeVolunteer tester
Send message
Joined: 8 Dec 13 Posts: 540 ID: 284516 Credit: 1,528,580,790 RAC: 751,314

I think the polite thing to do is to not do WW.
No. /JeppeSN
More to the point if everyone stops so "someone else" can reach their goals then the project may never finish
Someone has to be a little greedy to finish things up
____________
My Primes
Badge Score: 4*2 + 6*2 + 7*4 + 8*9 + 11*3 + 12*1 = 165




The leading edge is currently 16800.127P.
This means the project is 91.07% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 21640 tasks per day, which means the project has about 51 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate. This rate is still somewhat elevated because it takes into account part of the last challenge on WW.
In the last day, the project completed 18010 tasks, which means the project has about 61 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 13.17 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 17002.099P.
This means the project is 92.17% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 16130 tasks per day, which means the project has about 60 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 18920 tasks, which means the project has about 51 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 11.56 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
These estimates are no longer biased by the challenge.
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The leading edge is currently 17191.03P.
This means the project is 93.19% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 16800 tasks per day, which means the project has about 50 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 18090 tasks, which means the project has about 46 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 10.05 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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The leading edge is currently 17393.377P.
This means the project is 94.29% complete.
In the last month, the project has averaged 17770 tasks per day, which means the project has about 40 more days before it will be completed at the current monthly rate.
In the last day, the project completed 18320 tasks, which means the project has about 38 more days before it will be completed at the current rate.
There is about 8.43 billion credit left to be claimed for the project.
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I'll be posting remaining updates in this thread: https://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=10037
I haven't been calculating the odds of finding an exact hit in the remaining range like those who started this thread were, so I am moving my posts over to there at this point.
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