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Message boards :
The Riesel Problem :
Chance of TRP Prime
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RogerVolunteer developer Volunteer tester
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Joined: 27 Nov 11 Posts: 1138 ID: 120786 Credit: 268,668,824 RAC: 0
                    
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Chance of TRP Prime Table
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| k remaining | 9-10M| 10-11M| 11-12M| 12-13M| 13-14M| 14-15M| Total |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 2293 | 2.83% | 2.56% | 2.33% | 2.15% | 1.99% | 1.85% | 13.70%|
| 9221 | 5.85% | 5.29% | 4.83% | 4.45% | 4.12% | 3.83% | 28.37%|
| 23669 | 2.10% | 1.90% | 1.74% | 1.60% | 1.48% | 1.38% | 10.20%|
| 31859 | 2.61% | 2.36% | 2.16% | 1.99% | 1.84% | 1.71% | 12.67%|
| 38473 | 1.91% | 1.73% | 1.58% | 1.45% | 1.34% | 1.25% | 9.25% |
| 46663 | 2.34% | 2.12% | 1.94% | 1.78% | 1.65% | 1.53% | 11.36%|
| 67117 | 3.34% | 3.02% | 2.76% | 2.54% | 2.35% | 2.19% | 16.19%|
| 74699 | 1.39% | 1.26% | 1.15% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 0.91% | 6.75% |
| 81041 | 2.04% | 1.85% | 1.69% | 1.55% | 1.44% | 1.34% | 9.90% |
| 93839 | 4.36% | 3.94% | 3.60% | 3.31% | 3.07% | 2.86% | 21.14%|
| 97139 | 2.85% | 2.58% | 2.35% | 2.17% | 2.01% | 1.87% | 13.82%|
| 107347 | 3.41% | 3.08% | 2.81% | 2.59% | 2.40% | 2.23% | 16.52%|
| 121889 | 2.66% | 2.41% | 2.20% | 2.02% | 1.87% | 1.74% | 12.89%|
| 129007 | 2.15% | 1.95% | 1.78% | 1.64% | 1.52% | 1.41% | 10.45%|
| 143047 | 1.50% | 1.36% | 1.24% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 7.29% |
| 146561 | 3.12% | 2.82% | 2.58% | 2.37% | 2.19% | 2.04% | 15.13%|
| 161669 | 1.00% | 0.90% | 0.82% | 0.76% | 0.70% | 0.65% | 4.83% |
| 192971 | 0.85% | 0.77% | 0.71% | 0.65% | 0.60% | 0.56% | 4.14% |
| 206039 | 2.23% | 2.02% | 1.84% | 1.70% | 1.57% | 1.46% | 10.83%|
| 206231 | 2.27% | 2.05% | 1.88% | 1.73% | 1.60% | 1.49% | 11.01%|
| 215443 | 3.80% | 3.44% | 3.14% | 2.89% | 2.68% | 2.49% | 18.44%|
| 226153 | 2.58% | 2.33% | 2.13% | 1.96% | 1.81% | 1.69% | 12.50%|
| 234343 | 2.69% | 2.44% | 2.23% | 2.05% | 1.90% | 1.76% | 13.06%|
| 245561 | 0.86% | 0.78% | 0.71% | 0.66% | 0.61% | 0.56% | 4.18% |
| 250027 | 2.55% | 2.31% | 2.11% | 1.94% | 1.79% | 1.67% | 12.37%|
| 315929 | 3.94% | 3.56% | 3.25% | 2.99% | 2.77% | 2.58% | 19.10%|
| 319511 | 4.74% | 4.29% | 3.91% | 3.60% | 3.33% | 3.10% | 22.97%|
| 324011 | 2.88% | 2.61% | 2.38% | 2.19% | 2.03% | 1.89% | 13.97%|
| 325123 | 1.97% | 1.78% | 1.63% | 1.50% | 1.39% | 1.29% | 9.56% |
| 327671 | 1.40% | 1.27% | 1.16% | 1.07% | 0.99% | 0.92% | 6.81% |
| 336839 | 7.03% | 6.36% | 5.80% | 5.34% | 4.94% | 4.60% | 34.06%|
| 342847 | n/a | 0.55% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 0.40% | 2.34% |
| 344759 | 2.85% | 2.58% | 2.35% | 2.17% | 2.01% | 1.87% | 13.82%|
| 362609 | 4.76% | 4.31% | 3.93% | 3.62% | 3.35% | 3.12% | 23.08%|
| 363343 | 3.01% | 2.72% | 2.49% | 2.29% | 2.12% | 1.97% | 14.59%|
| 364903 | 4.65% | 4.20% | 3.84% | 3.53% | 3.27% | 3.04% | 22.54%|
| 365159 | 3.58% | 3.24% | 2.96% | 2.72% | 2.52% | 2.35% | 17.36%|
| 368411 | 4.42% | 4.00% | 3.65% | 3.36% | 3.11% | 2.90% | 21.44%|
| 371893 | 3.24% | 2.93% | 2.68% | 2.46% | 2.28% | 2.12% | 15.71%|
| 384539 | 3.40% | 3.07% | 2.81% | 2.58% | 2.39% | 2.23% | 16.47%|
| 386801 | 1.99% | 1.80% | 1.64% | 1.51% | 1.40% | 1.30% | 9.63% |
| 397027 | 1.49% | 1.35% | 1.23% | 1.13% | 1.05% | 0.98% | 7.23% |
| 409753 | 2.99% | 2.70% | 2.47% | 2.27% | 2.10% | 1.95% | 14.47%|
| 444637 | n/a | 0.59% | 0.54% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 2.51% |
| 470173 | 2.96% | 2.68% | 2.45% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 1.94% | 14.37%|
| 474491 | 4.23% | 3.83% | 3.50% | 3.22% | 2.98% | 2.77% | 20.53%|
| 477583 | 1.27% | 1.15% | 1.05% | 0.97% | 0.89% | 0.83% | 6.16% |
| 485557 | 1.50% | 1.36% | 1.24% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 7.29% |
| 494743 | 1.43% | 1.29% | 1.18% | 1.08% | 1.00% | 0.93% | 6.92% |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Any Prime | 74.18%| 70.89%| 67.54%| 64.43%| 61.56%| 58.91%| 99.92%|
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
Total row at the bottom is calculated as 1-(chance of no prime).
Calculated as described in post:
http://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=4935&nowrap=true#73980 | |
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Any chance this could be updated? It's been almost a year now.
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My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1
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Ravi FernandoProject administrator Volunteer tester Project scientist Send message
Joined: 21 Mar 19 Posts: 211 ID: 1108183 Credit: 13,332,742 RAC: 4,508
              
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There's not much to update. We're just past n=10M, and no new primes have been found (so the 74% chance in the bottom left didn't come true). Other than the 9-10M column, the numbers should change only slightly. The 10-11M column should decrease slightly (because we've already started searching that range), and the others should increase slightly (because each k is now more likely to last that long). | |
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robish Volunteer moderator Volunteer tester
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Joined: 7 Jan 12 Posts: 2195 ID: 126266 Credit: 7,299,561,426 RAC: 3,217,268
                               
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I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜
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My lucky numbers 10590941048576+1 and 224584605939537911+81292139*23#*n for n=0..26 | |
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Crun-chi Volunteer tester
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Joined: 25 Nov 09 Posts: 3208 ID: 50683 Credit: 135,132,479 RAC: 139,767
                         
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I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜
LOL :)
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92*10^1439761-1 NEAR-REPDIGIT PRIME :) :) :)
4 * 650^498101-1 CRUS PRIME
2022202116^131072+1 GENERALIZED FERMAT
Proud member of team Aggie The Pew. Go Aggie! | |
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There's not much to update. We're just past n=10M, and no new primes have been found (so the 74% chance in the bottom left didn't come true). Other than the 9-10M column, the numbers should change only slightly. The 10-11M column should decrease slightly (because we've already started searching that range), and the others should increase slightly (because each k is now more likely to last that long).
Okay,
I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜
Very optimistic, eh?
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My lucky number is 6219*2^3374198+1
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Message boards :
The Riesel Problem :
Chance of TRP Prime |