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Message boards : The Riesel Problem : Chance of TRP Prime

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Profile Roger
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Joined: 27 Nov 11
Posts: 1137
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Credit: 267,305,174
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Found 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,037,982)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,015,907)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,232,391)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,088,705)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,962,062)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,539,644)SoB LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,122,524)SR5 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,238,295)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,919,017)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,125,391)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,037,732)321 Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,190,731)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (207,387)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,049,697)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (100,422,123)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,227,972)TRP Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,659)AP 26/27 Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,651,644)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (57,918,585)PSA Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (43,298,465)
Message 129047 - Posted: 28 Apr 2019 | 13:02:17 UTC
Last modified: 28 Apr 2019 | 13:04:15 UTC

Chance of TRP Prime Table

+---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | k remaining | 9-10M| 10-11M| 11-12M| 12-13M| 13-14M| 14-15M| Total | +---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | 2293 | 2.83% | 2.56% | 2.33% | 2.15% | 1.99% | 1.85% | 13.70%| | 9221 | 5.85% | 5.29% | 4.83% | 4.45% | 4.12% | 3.83% | 28.37%| | 23669 | 2.10% | 1.90% | 1.74% | 1.60% | 1.48% | 1.38% | 10.20%| | 31859 | 2.61% | 2.36% | 2.16% | 1.99% | 1.84% | 1.71% | 12.67%| | 38473 | 1.91% | 1.73% | 1.58% | 1.45% | 1.34% | 1.25% | 9.25% | | 46663 | 2.34% | 2.12% | 1.94% | 1.78% | 1.65% | 1.53% | 11.36%| | 67117 | 3.34% | 3.02% | 2.76% | 2.54% | 2.35% | 2.19% | 16.19%| | 74699 | 1.39% | 1.26% | 1.15% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 0.91% | 6.75% | | 81041 | 2.04% | 1.85% | 1.69% | 1.55% | 1.44% | 1.34% | 9.90% | | 93839 | 4.36% | 3.94% | 3.60% | 3.31% | 3.07% | 2.86% | 21.14%| | 97139 | 2.85% | 2.58% | 2.35% | 2.17% | 2.01% | 1.87% | 13.82%| | 107347 | 3.41% | 3.08% | 2.81% | 2.59% | 2.40% | 2.23% | 16.52%| | 121889 | 2.66% | 2.41% | 2.20% | 2.02% | 1.87% | 1.74% | 12.89%| | 129007 | 2.15% | 1.95% | 1.78% | 1.64% | 1.52% | 1.41% | 10.45%| | 143047 | 1.50% | 1.36% | 1.24% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 7.29% | | 146561 | 3.12% | 2.82% | 2.58% | 2.37% | 2.19% | 2.04% | 15.13%| | 161669 | 1.00% | 0.90% | 0.82% | 0.76% | 0.70% | 0.65% | 4.83% | | 192971 | 0.85% | 0.77% | 0.71% | 0.65% | 0.60% | 0.56% | 4.14% | | 206039 | 2.23% | 2.02% | 1.84% | 1.70% | 1.57% | 1.46% | 10.83%| | 206231 | 2.27% | 2.05% | 1.88% | 1.73% | 1.60% | 1.49% | 11.01%| | 215443 | 3.80% | 3.44% | 3.14% | 2.89% | 2.68% | 2.49% | 18.44%| | 226153 | 2.58% | 2.33% | 2.13% | 1.96% | 1.81% | 1.69% | 12.50%| | 234343 | 2.69% | 2.44% | 2.23% | 2.05% | 1.90% | 1.76% | 13.06%| | 245561 | 0.86% | 0.78% | 0.71% | 0.66% | 0.61% | 0.56% | 4.18% | | 250027 | 2.55% | 2.31% | 2.11% | 1.94% | 1.79% | 1.67% | 12.37%| | 315929 | 3.94% | 3.56% | 3.25% | 2.99% | 2.77% | 2.58% | 19.10%| | 319511 | 4.74% | 4.29% | 3.91% | 3.60% | 3.33% | 3.10% | 22.97%| | 324011 | 2.88% | 2.61% | 2.38% | 2.19% | 2.03% | 1.89% | 13.97%| | 325123 | 1.97% | 1.78% | 1.63% | 1.50% | 1.39% | 1.29% | 9.56% | | 327671 | 1.40% | 1.27% | 1.16% | 1.07% | 0.99% | 0.92% | 6.81% | | 336839 | 7.03% | 6.36% | 5.80% | 5.34% | 4.94% | 4.60% | 34.06%| | 342847 | n/a | 0.55% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 0.40% | 2.34% | | 344759 | 2.85% | 2.58% | 2.35% | 2.17% | 2.01% | 1.87% | 13.82%| | 362609 | 4.76% | 4.31% | 3.93% | 3.62% | 3.35% | 3.12% | 23.08%| | 363343 | 3.01% | 2.72% | 2.49% | 2.29% | 2.12% | 1.97% | 14.59%| | 364903 | 4.65% | 4.20% | 3.84% | 3.53% | 3.27% | 3.04% | 22.54%| | 365159 | 3.58% | 3.24% | 2.96% | 2.72% | 2.52% | 2.35% | 17.36%| | 368411 | 4.42% | 4.00% | 3.65% | 3.36% | 3.11% | 2.90% | 21.44%| | 371893 | 3.24% | 2.93% | 2.68% | 2.46% | 2.28% | 2.12% | 15.71%| | 384539 | 3.40% | 3.07% | 2.81% | 2.58% | 2.39% | 2.23% | 16.47%| | 386801 | 1.99% | 1.80% | 1.64% | 1.51% | 1.40% | 1.30% | 9.63% | | 397027 | 1.49% | 1.35% | 1.23% | 1.13% | 1.05% | 0.98% | 7.23% | | 409753 | 2.99% | 2.70% | 2.47% | 2.27% | 2.10% | 1.95% | 14.47%| | 444637 | n/a | 0.59% | 0.54% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 2.51% | | 470173 | 2.96% | 2.68% | 2.45% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 1.94% | 14.37%| | 474491 | 4.23% | 3.83% | 3.50% | 3.22% | 2.98% | 2.77% | 20.53%| | 477583 | 1.27% | 1.15% | 1.05% | 0.97% | 0.89% | 0.83% | 6.16% | | 485557 | 1.50% | 1.36% | 1.24% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 0.98% | 7.29% | | 494743 | 1.43% | 1.29% | 1.18% | 1.08% | 1.00% | 0.93% | 6.92% | +---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | Any Prime | 74.18%| 70.89%| 67.54%| 64.43%| 61.56%| 58.91%| 99.92%| +---------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Total row at the bottom is calculated as 1-(chance of no prime).
Calculated as described in post:
http://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=4935&nowrap=true#73980

Profile dannyridel
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Posts: 762
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321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (78,095)Cullen LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,962)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,309)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,373)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (180,271)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,559)SoB LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (66,029)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (57,152)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,711)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (67,784)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (40,976)321 Sieve (suspended) Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (506,814)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (30,033)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (714,652)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,903)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (243,814)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (373,034)
Message 139638 - Posted: 13 Apr 2020 | 10:22:37 UTC

Any chance this could be updated? It's been almost a year now.
____________
SHSID Electronics Group
SHSIDElectronicsGroup@outlook.com

GFN-14: 50103906^16384+1
Proth "SoB": 44243*2^440969+1


Ravi Fernando
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Joined: 21 Mar 19
Posts: 125
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Credit: 8,298,400
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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (370,134)Cullen LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (82,217)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (16,570)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,551)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,093,683)PSP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (26,371)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (183,524)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (59,307)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (148,878)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (195,905)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (19,925)321 Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,001,667)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (72,774)
Message 139642 - Posted: 13 Apr 2020 | 16:51:27 UTC - in response to Message 139638.

There's not much to update. We're just past n=10M, and no new primes have been found (so the 74% chance in the bottom left didn't come true). Other than the 9-10M column, the numbers should change only slightly. The 10-11M column should decrease slightly (because we've already started searching that range), and the others should increase slightly (because each k is now more likely to last that long).

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Discovered the World's First AP27!!!Discovered 9 mega primesDiscovered 1 AP272018 Tour de Primes largest primeFound 4 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,681,253)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (37,215,719)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,404,450)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,386,197)PPS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (53,507,953)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,863,505)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (36,772,233)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,519,461)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,250,345)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (28,497,135)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,062,771)321 Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,141,753)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,892,369)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,515,338)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (841,182,485)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (121,416)AP 26/27 Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (89,989,094)WW Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (684,000)GFN Double Ruby: Earned 2,000,000,000 credits (3,806,804,018)
Message 139643 - Posted: 13 Apr 2020 | 17:20:58 UTC

I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜
____________
My lucky numbers 10590941048576+1 and 224584605939537911+81292139*23#*n for n=0..26

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Eliminated 1 conjecture "k"Found 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (229,492)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (110,733)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,173,525)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,385)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,117)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,802)SGS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,325,207)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (626,755)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (122,944)321 Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,900)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,599)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (515,556)PPS Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,855,975)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (255,612)AP 26/27 Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,583,960)WW Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (116,000)GFN Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,334,026)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,522,050)
Message 139652 - Posted: 13 Apr 2020 | 23:28:51 UTC - in response to Message 139643.

I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜

LOL :)
____________
314187728^131072+1 GENERALIZED FERMAT :)
93*10^1029523-1 REPDIGIT PRIME
31*332^367560+1 CRUS PRIME
Proud member of team Aggie The Pew. Go Aggie!

Profile dannyridel
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Joined: 3 Feb 19
Posts: 762
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Credit: 2,662,472
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321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (78,095)Cullen LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,962)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,309)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,373)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (180,271)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,559)SoB LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (66,029)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (57,152)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,711)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (67,784)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (40,976)321 Sieve (suspended) Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (506,814)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (30,033)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (714,652)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,903)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (243,814)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (373,034)
Message 139653 - Posted: 14 Apr 2020 | 1:15:23 UTC - in response to Message 139642.

There's not much to update. We're just past n=10M, and no new primes have been found (so the 74% chance in the bottom left didn't come true). Other than the 9-10M column, the numbers should change only slightly. The 10-11M column should decrease slightly (because we've already started searching that range), and the others should increase slightly (because each k is now more likely to last that long).

Okay,

I'm on it Ravi, won't be long now 😜

Very optimistic, eh?
____________
SHSID Electronics Group
SHSIDElectronicsGroup@outlook.com

GFN-14: 50103906^16384+1
Proth "SoB": 44243*2^440969+1


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Message boards : The Riesel Problem : Chance of TRP Prime

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