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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : The SOB Double Check will end... aka The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

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Profile JayProject donor
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Joined: 27 Feb 10
Posts: 90
ID: 56067
Credit: 48,212,263
RAC: 13,431
321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,482)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,670)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,502)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (114,572)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,015)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (118,657)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,889,770)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,043)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,539)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,264)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (107,466)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (140,910)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,005,637)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,861)PPS Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,033,489)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,365,882)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (119,061)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,118)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (250,199)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (131,126)
Message 109520 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 14:24:24 UTC

Based on the rate so far (from Michael's x% complete posts) and wild predictions regarding the impact of future challenges and increasing technological capabilities, I'm going to predict the SOB Double Check will be complete on May 28, 2023.

Anyone else? What date are you predicting?

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,063,182)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,005,249)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,001,789)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,135,461)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,768,012)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,632,269)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,034,802)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,159,422)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,011,264)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,737,347)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,195,123)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,796,669)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,110,788)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,090,096)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,583,223)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,135,447)
Message 109524 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 14:52:32 UTC

It will be interesting to see which happens first: we finish the DC or Elon Musk successfully lands something on Mars. Not a person, but any sort of lander.

As for predictions, I think you're in the right ballpark.
____________
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My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Michael Millerick
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Posts: 634
ID: 35074
Credit: 126,237,533
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321 LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,063,954)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (665,748)ESP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,025,432)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (589,484)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,534,725)PSP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,134,556)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,064,898)SR5 LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,043,015)SGS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,072,821)TRP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,026,807)Woodall LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,042,977)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,096,785)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,911,344)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,077,092)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (45,225,274)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,034,014)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,070,774)AP 26/27 Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,913,157)GFN Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,388,283)PSA Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (47,256,391)
Message 109526 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 15:32:48 UTC

In order to help eliminate the computing time cost of data loss in the future, is there any chance that the complete result set be made available periodically for download? That way we'll have tons of users with the data to restore from in case anything ever does happen.
____________

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,063,182)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,005,249)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,001,789)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,135,461)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,768,012)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,632,269)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,034,802)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,159,422)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,011,264)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,737,347)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,195,123)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,796,669)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,110,788)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,090,096)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,583,223)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,135,447)
Message 109530 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 16:32:03 UTC - in response to Message 109526.

In order to help eliminate the computing time cost of data loss in the future, is there any chance that the complete result set be made available periodically for download? That way we'll have tons of users with the data to restore from in case anything ever does happen.


That's not a terrible idea.

Understand that both Jim and myself are really paranoid about business continuity, and it's hard to imagine any sort of disaster that would result in the data being lost. I can think of things that would shut PrimeGrid down permanently, but the data would survive such an event. I might need to use sneakernet to distribute the data (the proverbial station wagon filled with 9-track tapes), but short of a nuclear holocaust hitting multiple locations, the data is well preserved. And if there's s single event that takes out both the data center and the secondary storage site, which is hundreds of miles away, I suspect what's left of civilization won't be worrying about our data.

When 9/11 happened, I was working for a large company that had a substantial data center INSIDE one of the World Trade Center towers. The data center itself was destroyed, of course. All of our people working in that data center survived (it was on the 3rd floor of a 110 story building.) Our business didn't miss a beat. The tower came down, those computers stopped communicating, and our computers in other datacenters simply picked up the workload. PrimeGrid's disaster recovery plan isn't nearly as robust, but we won't have one of those "oh God, everything is lost" type of disasters. Worst case scenario, if there's still power and computers, we'll be able to get PrimeGrid up and running again, sooner or later, with minimal loss of data.

But it's not a terrible idea, and we'll give it some thought.


____________
Please do not PM me with support questions. Ask on the forums instead. Thank you!

My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Profile GrebulonerProject donor
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Found 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 4 primes in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,053,890)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,744,927)ESP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,046,953)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,458,304)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,681,633)PSP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,025,532)SoB LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,815,699)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,050,617)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,004,392)TRP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,563,149)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,304,814)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,663,670)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,178,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (56,046,594)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (365,294,917)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,468,384)TRP Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,076,645)AP 26/27 Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (281,711,232)GFN Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (180,259,268)PSA Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (102,878,562)
Message 109537 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 18:15:15 UTC

Ever the optimist of enhanced CPU instruction extensions, I will say we'll finish February 2, 2022

I'm a fan of the sneakernet backup, I keep an encrypted backup drive in my work locker and someday I'll have a safety deposit box and leave one in there, too. How big is the Primegrid results database?
____________
Eating more cheese on Thursdays.

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,063,182)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,005,249)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,001,789)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,135,461)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,768,012)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,632,269)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,034,802)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,159,422)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,011,264)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,737,347)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,195,123)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,796,669)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,110,788)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,090,096)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,583,223)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,135,447)
Message 109538 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 19:13:29 UTC - in response to Message 109537.

Ever the optimist of enhanced CPU instruction extensions, I will say we'll finish February 2, 2022

I'm a fan of the sneakernet backup, I keep an encrypted backup drive in my work locker and someday I'll have a safety deposit box and leave one in there, too. How big is the Primegrid results database?


It's not that simple to answer, because there's lots of archived data that isn't in the database. An easier question is "How much disk space is used?" Less than 250 GB for BOINC. Less (a lot less) for PRPNet. Much of that is compressed. We could fit the whole thing on a thumb drive if we wanted.

As I said before, there's currently little risk of the data being lost. Almost everything exists in at least 4 locations -- 2 servers, an incremental cloud backup, and an offsite storage. Those backups are versioned, meaning there's multiple copies of each file. Even an encryption/malware attack would be survivable. Datacenter burns to the ground? Survivable. Rackspace folds up shop without warning (or we get locked out)? Survivable. Nuclear attack? Maybe survivable, maybe not. Depends on where the nukes fall. It will take at least two nukes in the right locations.





____________
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My lucky number is 75898524288+1

KeithProject donor
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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,438,872)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,009,911)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,279,697)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,586,293)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,374,777)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,436,657)SoB LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,751,021)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,014,727)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,009,588)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,759,074)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,053,050)321 Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,002,887)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,004,494)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (100,111,958)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,002,980)TRP Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,010,755)AP 26/27 Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (57,539,976)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (69,519,543)
Message 109539 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 19:26:13 UTC - in response to Message 109520.

Based on the rate so far (from Michael's x% complete posts) and wild predictions regarding the impact of future challenges and increasing technological capabilities, I'm going to predict the SOB Double Check will be complete on May 28, 2023.

Anyone else? What date are you predicting?


Based upon the way PSP progressed (I know it's apples to oranges here) I would say that we would have all doublecheck units sent out for the first time by December 1, 2019. However, given how SoB works with wing-people and resends due to various task failures or abandonments I would say that it would take until April 1, 2021 to get all the results back.

Of course all of these predictions will be thrown out the window if someone finds a prime.
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321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (587,721)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (434,353)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (110,607)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (133,139)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (673,774)PSP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (951,723)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (24,363,897)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (221,631)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,225)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (522,102)Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (783,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (120,713)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (636,552)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,989)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,663)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (149,591)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,170,976)
Message 109619 - Posted: 26 Aug 2017 | 18:36:51 UTC

Meanwhile (probably my understanding is lacking here) it just happened to me: is The Prime Rank on the home correct for SOB? Just a consistency question, you know.

____________
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Points just make me sick.

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,063,182)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,005,249)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,001,789)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,135,461)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,768,012)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,632,269)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,034,802)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,159,422)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,011,264)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,737,347)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,195,123)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,796,669)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,110,788)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,090,096)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,583,223)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,135,447)
Message 109631 - Posted: 27 Aug 2017 | 6:16:46 UTC - in response to Message 109619.

Meanwhile (probably my understanding is lacking here) it just happened to me: is The Prime Rank on the home correct for SOB? Just a consistency question, you know.


No.

It's still picking up the straggler in-progress tasks. Until those complete, the largest numbers still be worked on are technically leading edge tasks.
____________
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My lucky number is 75898524288+1

whynot
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321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (587,721)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (434,353)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (110,607)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (133,139)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (673,774)PSP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (951,723)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (24,363,897)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (221,631)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,225)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (522,102)Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (783,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (120,713)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (636,552)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,989)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,663)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (149,591)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,170,976)
Message 109835 - Posted: 2 Sep 2017 | 17:14:14 UTC

Well, that's what I've expected. I understand that making it dynamic is too much coding (besides being useless). However, for sake of integrity, footnote it maybe?

____________
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Points just make me sick.

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Found 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (38,954)ESP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (942,185)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (888,733)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (390,320)SoB LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,764,524)SR5 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (557,811)TRP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,745,811)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (149,996,016)TRP Sieve (suspended) Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (669,191)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,572,445)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,975,306)
Message 115050 - Posted: 16 Feb 2018 | 8:10:07 UTC

Considering the insanity that was the SoB challenge this January, and assuming (and hoping and praying) that it's done every year until it's done, my basic graphing skills and line drawing points me to April 22, 2019 .

It's pretty amazing that the 11 or so percentage points that were double checked in half a month were almost equivalent to the half a year the previous 11 took. And it seems like the rate of SoB double check is slightly higher now, even after the challenge and during a TdP.

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PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,946)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (11,350)321 Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (24,395)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,434)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (421,375)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (76,817)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (170,379)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (243,010)
Message 115055 - Posted: 16 Feb 2018 | 11:10:29 UTC
Last modified: 16 Feb 2018 | 11:10:50 UTC

November 2020
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Credit: 5,929,621
RAC: 18,449
321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (71,075)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,188)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (118,622)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (107,884)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (173,991)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,353)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,752,490)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (23,535)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (31,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (166,125)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,435)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (499,496)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (47,194)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,903)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (297,213)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (232,200)
Message 115650 - Posted: 1 Mar 2018 | 9:32:59 UTC

I agree that chalenge makes it quicker. So I think: June 4, 2019.

dthononProject donor
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ID: 957147
Credit: 981,701,777
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Discovered 2 mega primes2018 Tour de Primes highest prime count2018 Tour de Primes highest prime scoreFound 50 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 5 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (36,081,497)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,241,050)ESP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,746,527)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (24,820,589)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (148,355,232)PSP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,833,687)SoB LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (187,342,954)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,597,653)SGS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,047,614)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (30,128,392)Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,121,734)321 Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,190,853)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (126,821,599)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (107,686,595)AP 26/27 Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (28,697,214)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (96,038,617)PSA Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (49,953,766)
Message 115855 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:18:14 UTC - in response to Message 115650.

I would not be so optimistic. I have been processing around 1000 SOB per month since early December. But that will end this month as we decommission our VMs. I don't know what part of the monthly SOB processing that means, but it should be significant. Better wait a couple of months to see what the rate is at that time.

HonzaProject donor
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Joined: 15 Aug 05
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Credit: 2,446,440,784
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Discovered 5 mega primesEliminated 3 conjecture "k"sFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage2019 Tour de Primes largest primeFound 4 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,556,284)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (48,080,579)ESP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,668,198)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,309,119)PPS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (81,141,206)PSP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,462,639)SoB LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (67,865,553)SR5 LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,320,316)SGS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,598,870)TPS LLR (retired) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (43,033)TRP LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (57,441,313)Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (27,011,311)321 Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (24,099,769)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,142,109)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,504,945)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (504,377,255)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,288,222)TRP Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,149,354)AP 26/27 Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (175,835,720)GFN Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (614,303,774)PSA Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (531,236,492)
Message 115856 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:39:56 UTC - in response to Message 115855.
Last modified: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:40:26 UTC

... I have been processing around 1000 SOB per month since early December. But that will end this month as we decommission our VMs. I don't know what part of the monthly SOB processing that means, but it should be significant...

http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_tasks.php

Note that February had very low performance as many participants were focusing on PPS/PPSE/PPSMega.
And, first half of January had extra performance due to SoB challenge.




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Badge score: 1*1 + 5*1 + 7*1 + 8*8 + 9*7 + 11*1 + 12*3 = 187

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Joined: 7 Jan 12
Posts: 968
ID: 126266
Credit: 2,454,378,287
RAC: 4,084,890
Discovered 7 mega primes2018 Tour de Primes largest primeFound 4 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,232,081)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,142,092)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,078,685)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,466,498)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (26,790,005)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,053,061)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,241,166)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,093,583)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,000,646)TRP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,722,923)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,062,771)321 Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,025,452)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,892,369)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,515,338)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (770,684,762)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (121,416)AP 26/27 Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,510,045)GFN Double Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000,000 credits (1,523,745,393)
Message 115861 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 23:27:32 UTC

September 2019
____________
My lucky number's 10590941048576+1 and 5641491616384+1 (GFN-14 Consecutive Prime)

Andy
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Posts: 19
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Credit: 99,406,167
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Found 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (203,247)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,314,588)SoB LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (60,900,227)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (65,538)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,283,307)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,598,082)GFN Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (41,179)
Message 115867 - Posted: 8 Mar 2018 | 4:52:33 UTC

I've thrown my roughly 50 cores (Of widely varying quality) on the fire, but we haven't gone from 30% -> 31% in nearly 2 weeks, So best-case 24% per year from 'normal' operation, and a 13% or so from a challenge, gives us pretty close to 2 years from now, assuming 2 more challenges in those time frames.

I'm actually going to throw down a really shady guess and say on the 9th day of the 2020 SOB challenge.

Chara34122
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Credit: 5,929,621
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321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (71,075)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,188)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (118,622)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (107,884)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (173,991)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,353)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,752,490)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (23,535)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (31,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (166,125)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,435)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (499,496)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (47,194)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (84,903)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (297,213)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (232,200)
Message 127819 - Posted: 7 Mar 2019 | 20:06:13 UTC

Will the last unfinished WUs be finished manually? The finish date depends on it.

Profile Jordan Romaidis
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Credit: 318,214,314
RAC: 1,408,395
Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,266,264)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,080,460)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (426,778)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,849,297)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (25,957,944)PSP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (23,710)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (37,489,376)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,724,924)SGS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,730,172)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (525,711)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,028,246)321 Sieve Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,039,854)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,606,749)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,296,981)AP 26/27 Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (41,978,469)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (72,335,073)PSA Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (52,891,089)
Message 129661 - Posted: 20 May 2019 | 18:11:50 UTC

July 23rd, 2019

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,063,182)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,005,249)ESP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,001,789)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,135,461)PPS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,768,012)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,632,269)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,034,802)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,159,422)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,011,264)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,737,347)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,195,123)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,796,669)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,110,788)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,090,096)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,583,223)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,135,447)
Message 129662 - Posted: 20 May 2019 | 18:30:17 UTC - in response to Message 127819.

Will the last unfinished WUs be finished manually? The finish date depends on it.


Probably.

There's 2 different finish dates: When the last DC tasks are initially sent out, and we start working once again on real leading edge candidates, and when (probably 3 to 6 months later) the wingmen finally finish working on the DC tasks.

We are down to 5083 candidates that have not yet been turned into tasks, out of a total of 149364 candidates that needed to be checked. We're burning through about 100 each day, give or take.
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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : The SOB Double Check will end... aka The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

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